First to phase out
 

Which of these are first to phase out?

737-700/800/900

717

321

or some combination of both

My completely uneducated guess is 717 based solely on operational costs. They's probably buy more 700s if they could.

They are telling recurrent classes that the existing 800ng will be replacing the 700 in SE and the 717 inter island. Timeline is fuzzy, but neither the 717 or the 700 have much economic life left. The 900ER aren't that old and should be around for quite a while.

Depends.

If we can get deliveries, it will be the 321. I think it is very possible and viable for the company to dump the 717 and have the current route structure 737s cover that flying without having to replace airframes 1:1. It will be a race to see whether the 321 or 717 will go away first. Honestly, the 321 could replace the 717s. Those airframes are so old, and such MX hogs.

Tell us you know nothing about interisland flying, without telling us you know nothing about interisland flying.

They put a 330 sim and 787 sim in Ben’s circle jerk building, along with a few 737. I think you know what’s gonna happen.

Tell us you know nothing about airlines getting bought and route structures getting gutted without telling us you know nothing about airlines being bought and route structures getting gutted.

AS can absolutely adopt a similar model to SWA with regard to mainland aircraft flying in, and flying between the islands before it is sent back to the mainland.

If anyone thinks some shiny new airplane is going to do the island flying over a 737, I have some beachfront property in Iowa to sell you.

Don’t worry there’s tons of pilots there that will help him lol.

I don't think anybody thinks that at this point. Management has telegraphed intentions, plus there's really no airplane out there which brings enough niche optimization to make it worth carrying an additional type.

The only additional type (beyond 737) which management doesn't hate and resent is the 787.

So it will be MAX8, flowed in and out via ETOPS to dilute engine cycles, with some, many, or most crews for island flying based on the islands.

That last isn't an absolute but I think it's still a but early for them to start to gutting the HNL crew base. Also from a pilot retention perspective it would probably behoove them top let pilots who want to be based on the islands, be based there. They have some flexibility there, depending on pilot demographics.

The chances of that happening are 100%. Now I don't think that takes away the need for pilot basing in the islands, but having an HNL 717 base change to some aircraft that only the islands operate is zero. I will eat my uniform hat if it is anything but a 737. Less daily frequency of flights to carry the same amount of people on those inter-island flights, more aircraft utilization, reducing the fleet types at the airline, and AS can buy them for a song. You don't dedicate the airframes to the islands, so you don't have the long-term issues with NEO/MAX engine issues. Easy to have fold into the islands from the mainland, have mainland crews fly them in, go on rest to fly them home the next day, with HNL crews doing some laps between the islands. I would be absolutely shocked if this didn't happen exactly like I describe.