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Old 08-22-2021, 11:37 AM
  #5171  
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Originally Posted by flysnoopy76 View Post
No way we hire 300+ over the next year, as mentioned earlier all growth is at horizon and Skywest, the number of mainline seats may increase slightly but the number of airplanes won’t in any appreciable way. Also you can bet that the second Alaska sees any drop in their projected bookings due to covid all the projected hiring will come to a quick stop.
167 this year, 340 for 2022. That’s over 500 between now and EOY 2022. Of course, Delta, Delta Plus, and Lamda variants could all ruin that. But even if we take half that (250-300) that’s still a big number for a pilot group of 2,900.
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Old 08-22-2021, 11:49 AM
  #5172  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy View Post
167 this year, 340 for 2022. That’s over 500 between now and EOY 2022. Of course, Delta, Delta Plus, and Lamda variants could all ruin that. But even if we take half that, around 250-300, that’s still a big number for a pilot group of 2,900.

To keep the math simple: at 1 of 300 hired it’s 10% which means if hired in the first few classes you won’t be on reserve. Likely open flying. Maybe red eye line at best. Everyone else in that group of 300 will be on reserve.

At 1 of 500 hired you’re going to be a line holder with no red eyes. You won’t be able to trade or get days off you want but at least you won’t be flying red eyes every trip. Mostly you’ll get SE Alaska flying all winter. It’s not for everyone but I find the flying challenging and it’s making me a better pilot. It’s quite a bit of work and it’s not for everyone. I know this well because 1 of 500 percentage wise well that is my seniority now, after almost 4 years.

I think anyone who is thinking about a realistic growth rate at AS can see how being hired after the first few classes could be extremely challenging from a QOL standpoint. You’ll likely be on reserve for quite a long time unless hopefully our total lack of scope is fixed and ideally our staffing model changes quite a bit. Both things that management has publicly told the pilot group they absolutely will not do.

I was lucky and hired at the beginning of a wave of 400 pilots. Of course they were saying it was going to be 800.

Historically AS hires 1/2 of the pilots that they say they will. 2000 by 2000 is something I recall our sim instructors laughing about in initial training.

With the various Covid variants stirring the pot I’d be very careful and thinking about the worst case for the hiring figures and how I’d do on reserve flying red eyes for years.


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Old 08-22-2021, 12:37 PM
  #5173  
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If the variants get that bad that they affect hiring at AS, they’ll be bad enough to affect hiring at every other major airline too. This isn’t isolated to a single carrier. As for the rest, I think people can figure out they’ll be on reserve initially and probably for a while until the Covid exit looks clear. Gone are the days of being hired at an airline and doing one month of reserve.
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Old 08-22-2021, 03:28 PM
  #5174  
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Originally Posted by JohnnyBekkestad View Post
just give me a class with 2 weeks
norice and I’ll quit today. See now you only have to hire 299 more…
I’m in. Make it 298.
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Old 08-22-2021, 08:06 PM
  #5175  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy View Post
If the variants get that bad that they affect hiring at AS, they’ll be bad enough to affect hiring at every other major airline too. This isn’t isolated to a single carrier. As for the rest, I think people can figure out they’ll be on reserve initially and probably for a while until the Covid exit looks clear. Gone are the days of being hired at an airline and doing one month of reserve.
To think that 18 months ago, we were facing a looming "pilot shortage", it's mind bending to see where we are atm...
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Old 08-23-2021, 01:28 PM
  #5176  
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Originally Posted by NewGuy01 View Post
Really? Do you think the ANC base will be growing?
No, it’s actually shrinking as mainline flying is getting replaced by RJ’s.

Historically in high hiring times like were predicted going forward it wouldn’t be too difficult to get any base, except Portland.
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Old 08-23-2021, 03:51 PM
  #5177  
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Originally Posted by ImperialxRat View Post
No, it’s actually shrinking as mainline flying is getting replaced by RJ’s.

Historically in high hiring times like were predicted going forward it wouldn’t be too difficult to get any base, except Portland.
?

This bid adds 13 CAs and 9 FOs to ANC. Total ANC goes to 123C/116F.


What was the historic size?
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Old 08-23-2021, 03:52 PM
  #5178  
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Originally Posted by All Bizniz View Post
To think that 18 months ago, we were facing a looming "pilot shortage", it's mind bending to see where we are atm...
It is.

Thanks to the US government and taxpayers. Hopefully I won't have to hear about socialism or bailouts for years to come.
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Old 08-23-2021, 03:54 PM
  #5179  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy View Post
?

This bid adds 13 CAs and 9 FOs to ANC. Total ANC goes to 123C/116F.


What was the historic size?
Probably about that but I’m not sure. All I was trying to say is that with that bid and predicted hiring he should be able to get ANC out of training or shortly after - just a guess/prediction though.
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Old 08-23-2021, 05:51 PM
  #5180  
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Originally Posted by NewGuy01 View Post
To keep the math simple: at 1 of 300 hired it’s 10% which means if hired in the first few classes you won’t be on reserve. Likely open flying. Maybe red eye line at best. Everyone else in that group of 300 will be on reserve.

At 1 of 500 hired you’re going to be a line holder with no red eyes. You won’t be able to trade or get days off you want but at least you won’t be flying red eyes every trip. Mostly you’ll get SE Alaska flying all winter. It’s not for everyone but I find the flying challenging and it’s making me a better pilot. It’s quite a bit of work and it’s not for everyone. I know this well because 1 of 500 percentage wise well that is my seniority now, after almost 4 years.

I think anyone who is thinking about a realistic growth rate at AS can see how being hired after the first few classes could be extremely challenging from a QOL standpoint. You’ll likely be on reserve for quite a long time unless hopefully our total lack of scope is fixed and ideally our staffing model changes quite a bit. Both things that management has publicly told the pilot group they absolutely will not do.

I was lucky and hired at the beginning of a wave of 400 pilots. Of course they were saying it was going to be 800.

Historically AS hires 1/2 of the pilots that they say they will. 2000 by 2000 is something I recall our sim instructors laughing about in initial training.

With the various Covid variants stirring the pot I’d be very careful and thinking about the worst case for the hiring figures and how I’d do on reserve flying red eyes for years.


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Would you rather commute to a line in LAX or live in base on reserve in SEA at this airline?
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