It's worth understanding that corporate bankruptcy law has changed *significantly* since then. It's not a coincidence that several legacies all filed in the same time-frame before the new law took effect. No more quick trip through the BK drive-through to shed inconvenient obligations... if managers file today they are in serious jeopardy of losing control of the company, and their jobs. Basically the creditors, not the debtors-in-possession, are in the driver's seat today.

So no, AA managers will not declare BK unless they have no other alternative. I'm certainly not an AA fan-boy, but they are too big to fail, and they won't file BK as a matter of convenience.

 

So I live in base for both AK and SWA. I've got multiple friends at both shops who are genuinely happy there. My SWA friends are always talking about their schedule flexibility (and looking at their monthly bids vs. what they end up flying, it's impossible to ignore that SWA seems pretty awesome if your goal is to get max days off and max flexibility. (My friends are all 5 years or less on property, with most of them 2 years or less.) I know everyone on the interwebz is saying SWA is a dumpster fire, but is it really? They're saying the contract will happen and the rates will be on par with DL 737-9 and/or DL 75 rates, which is pretty solid.

All in all, for someone who lives in base and wants max days off with good schedule flexibility... If you assume that SWA will get their new contract soon, I'm struggling to understand why SWA wouldn't be attractive.

That said, I really, really, really get good vibes from Alaska and only hear happy things from my friends there. People seem happy and the work rules, routes, pay, and company culture are really attractive to me. I'm just curious why you feel SWA is so unattractive...

 

You'd have to get that info from SWA people. Preferably junior-ish people in the base you want.

Their contract will happen. How long it takes depends on mgt philosophy...

If they want to grow and compete they'll need to attract and retain pilots, and should have already done a deal, just like everybody else.

If they're praying for a good recession so they can enjoy below-industry labor costs for some years to come that would explain their current behavior.

"assume..."

Again IMO it depends on age. If you're older, how long do you want to suck it up in case that assumption doesn't pan out. Also they do have some structural issues, they haven't fixed their software yet and another big holiday meltdown might require hey park some planes until they can

If the base is a wash (If Bay Area, both are junior) then the schedules matter, and the type of flying.

For pure days off SWA would have a historical leg up but AS has PBS around the corner with strong associated rules.

I guess I would say that SWA carries some uncertainty. You are of course free to incur some risk in hopes of greater reward, but I do some risk.

 

how many times does it have to be stated. You will never know if you made the right decision until you retire.

anyone who says they have a spreadsheet that shows how much more you will make at a particular carrier over the next 30 years should be liable for the difference if they are wrong.

 

I'm pretty sure the guy in question is older, which means you can weight what you know today over crystal-ball factors decades down the road.

 

It's hard for me to believe that the "American Corporation" will not somehow figure out how to screw their employees and let the board make off with the lions share. Maybe I'm just cynical.

 

I think you are a bit more cynical than is warranted.

 

That's exactly why the laws were changed.

 

Looks like ANC was awarded to an April hire, so 11 months by the time the bid goes into effect.

 

With the 800 freighters coming I imagine the time to hold ANC will drop.