Turbosina

Rick, I've always really valued the wisdom you've shared on these forums over the years. I'm quite curious: what do you perceive as the risk of going to SWA? Sorry to derail an Alaska thread, but I imagine there are many pilots who are facing a similar choice (especially If you're West Coast, as AK and WN share SFO/OAK and LAX as bases).

I suppose I should start another thread that's essentially "AK or WN: where would you go?" The two airlines are very different in terms of culture, but they do share the same airframe, the same upgrade time, two major metro area bases, and fairly similar route network west of Denver. As far as I can tell, junior line holders at both airlines get approx 16-17 days of. So for West Coast based pilots with opportunities to go to either carrier, it's probably not an easy decision to make.
Of course, this is all moot if WN actually strikes and the pay scales remain where they are; you've got to hand it to AK for doing right by their pilots, with the new contract and pay. But the odds of WN management letting it get to the point of a strike (over the holiday travel season?) seem vanishingly low. Right? Or no?

rickair7777

From where I sit it's circumstantial. Depends on where you live and even how old you are.

AS is a pretty known quantity for the next few years. Improvements have been made, more to come, and some of the old attitudes towards pilots have also improved.

SWA will get a contract, but their long-term culture is questionable. Personally I don't give a rip about kool-aid culture either way, but rather a culture of win-win cooperation with their most critical labor group. AS seems to be doing better at that, while SWA might have decided that they want to revert to LCC model wrt to the pilots. They were the best place to work (pax) for many years, but they kind of fell into that by accident. So maybe they don't really want to be there.

If SWA has specific features which you really like, such as you're a morning person and never want to stay up late, then SWA seems pretty predictable in that sense.

As I said, I would have made a different call 5 years ago, but things change.





I doubt any large major would let it go all the way to a strike, most especially SWA. It would cost at least $100M in the first 15 minutes, then it would take at least a day to get the MEC together and present them with the generous "break glass" TA which SWA will have under lock and key, and for them to review and vote to end the strike. And then SWA would need a week to unfook their software before they could actually operate again.

So if released, and strike looming, the company would come to the table with something good. The trick is getting released, and management knows it.

PNWFlyer

where on earth did you hear that we have “the same upgrade time?”

Alaska under 5 years.
SWA close to 10.

907ANC

Only caveats are 1) there are still April hires on the ANC list and, 2) more important, the request list for ANC keeps growing -- a new hire now may wait longer, much longer. The list for PDX is shorter than it is for ANC and that's a larger base.

I'm in good shape, just want others to have the full picture.

Turbosina

Really? I thought AK was around 6-7 years and SWA about the same. No?

PNWFlyer

Doesn’t look like our new Contract didn’t hurt the company’s bottom line.

Not a bad Q3. Especially, when the APC financial geniuses were predicting doom and gloom. Well, they were parroting entertainment articles disguised as financial news. AA should also be going bankrupt soon according to them.

PNWFlyer

No.

Alaska Junior Captain SFO based hired 1/14/2019

SWA Jr Captain hired many years before that. Go to the SWA thread and see what they complain about. Upgrade time is one.

Turbosina

Thank you! As I live in SFO, that is quite a significant data point to consider.

Question though -- with all the ex-Bus guys transitioning to the 73, might that not change the equation? I imagine a bunch of senior Bus FOs would be upgrading to SFO 737 CA, and thereby pushing the upgrade time up quite a bit. No? Without access to the standing bid list I have no clue, alas...

conquestdz

I would anticipate SFO stays the junior base in both seats for some time or until the base plan changes. The bus guys all have their awards.

Turbosina

Thank you! Another question: I assume AK is pretty committed to SFO as a base? I get that the closure of all Bus bases and the retirement of the entire Bus fleet was a one-time thing that everyone kinda saw coming for quite some time, but it's not often that a major carrier fully retires a fleet type and closes multiple bases. Given AK's apparently more cautious growth pace than other carriers (UA, SWA all have very aggressive plans) — is it safe to say that SFO/737 will likely be a thing at AK for years to come? I realize this is the airline industry and plans can change in a heartbeat, but just curious as to the level of confidence that SFO will remain a growing base (or just a base at all) for the foreseeable future....