Moving contract talk to JCBA thread.

 

I have about 20 years left and assuming little growth does it look like an upgrade is in the cards? I understand how late to the game I am and especially with all the hiring that was post covid. Not that being a sr. Fo is a bad gig.

 

You would most likely upgrade if desired, airline movement goes in starts and stops, like rush hour traffic. We're stalled right now but eventually growth and retirements will add up to movement.

Whether you'd want to be a 50+ junior CA is another issue, probably have to wait and see what movement and QOL is like when the time comes. As you say senior FO isn't bad either at these pay rates (top-tier QOL).

 

“You would most likely upgrade”? I'd sure hope he can upgrade after 20 years on property.

 

I would hope so too. But there are negligible retirements for a lot of that time, and if we end up with fleet consolidation instead of growth it could be pretty ugly. So yes, most likely. But not absolute 100%.

I also meant "upgrade young enough to make it worth the hassle", so that probably means within 15 years.

 

HAL and ASA retires around 2-4% of its pilots every year?

 

Negligible retirements over 20 years? You’re joking right?

 

Again I was thinking 12-15-ish years, so the guy actually makes some CA money for a few years.

Retirements are pretty negligible on the AS side. I don't know for sure but have heard HA is similar.

The "Hopefully" part comes into play in the event that some WBs go away (AZ), and there is NB fleet consolidation.

So yes there is a risk that upgrades could drag out even longer than today. "Hopefully" not but it is possible with consolidation/stagnation.

If the guy wants to upgrade no later than 64 1/2, so he can have scrambled eggs and four stripes in his retirement photos, yeah that should be a safe enough assumption.

Anyway that's the worst case. And I mean realistic worst case because it could happen if DL gets real aggressive in SEA and SWA in CA and HI (not trying to factor fringe cases like asteroid impact, pandemic, nuclear war, etc).

There are also many better cases.... growth, early retirements, etc.

 

What are the retirement numbers? I don’t know how to process negligible.

 

They are not enough to make up for potential realistic stagnation and fleet consolidation, if it comes to pass. We are stagnate right now, consolidation is TBD.

A 25 y/o or 35 y/o new hire should have a nice long run in the left seat of something. A 45+ plus new-hire? Not strictly assured.

More likely there will be some growth, and current payscales facilitate early retirement for those who want it so most likely the upgrade time will be in the 10-12 year range for a while. But if anything goes wrong it could be worse (AZ, 321/717 dumped without one-for-one replacement).

If HA has massive retirement numbers (like AA) that I'm not aware of, then I'm completely off base.