If you think about it as an airline we’re almost there now. Anything that has to do with expanding the airline side of things is always a day late and a dollar short.

 

I think Maury and his minions are looking at the industry situation and trying to decide how to capitalize on it. It doesn't matter if they shrink the company as long as the profit margins remain the same. The shareholders will still support them. Maury and inc are trying to decide if a legacy carrier is going to implode or not (most likely American). If they survive the next 6-12 months, Plan B comes into play which is parking old jets and closing a few small bases. Overnights from large bases to cover the flying. If a legacy carrier falters G4 will strike like a cobra and grab that territory. Either way I don't see a contract deal coming because there's just no pressure on them to do it. They will keep their options open until the dust settles with war, fuel prices, and covid then choose a path. The union is nothing but a burr under their saddle that they have easily managed thus far.

 

Shareholders will support them if they shrink the company? I disagree. I can’t think of any situation where shareholders supported a company shrinking.

 

Profit margin and profit are two different things. You can have a $100 profit and a huge margin if you have a lemonade stand. Money talks and profit will always be king. Shrinking as a plan does not make sense.

 

Right but if everyone else is losing money and Allegiant is still making money, albeit less than before, management will be fine.

If current events don't tank the rest of the industry Maury and co will soon be at checkmate. Maury is a gambler and he's rolling the bones that the industry will tank. He hasn't been wrong much in the past. Maybe he'll win again or maybe he'll crap out. Remains to be seen.

 

IMO American isn’t going anywhere. Too big to fail. Too connected and essential politically and economically. The big four are basically Amtrak. The feds will throw whatever amount money at any of them to keep them going. The apocalypse could wipe out half the world and the government would eventually see to it that the big four would be resurrected.

I agree about Plan B, more overnights and shrinkage. I think MG is looking to do more fun centers and Hotel/Resort ventures. That will keep overall profit and margin going in the direction he wants. Airline stuff really isn’t his thing.

 

The legacy carriers are too big to fail, but they aren't to big to get broken up and sold off in pieces. Someone with cash on hand could make a huge play, just like Doug Parker once did.

Airline stuff is definitely Maury's thing. He's been involved in airlines his whole career. Redmond not so much.

 

They already have their April 30/Plan B threat in place. They’re getting more software support to transition to a traditional crew overnight system. With the challenges acquiring & retaining pilots & FA’s, and additional staffing requirements related to the recent MWD decision, consolidating down to a handful of bases is an option. Given the difficulties of the current environment, they’ll have no trouble high-fiving themselves over a profitable 2/3 size Allegiant, and their Wall St. country-club buddies will fall in line. It’s been said on here ad-nauseam - be very leery of coming here based on your small base “home every night” dream…

 

These same small bases opened because the city paid Allegiant a hefty sum to come there and other extras.

Not so easy to close down such an arrangement.

Regardless my time is better spent worrying what to eat for dinner than decisions I can’t control.

 

Brah, I hear ya. I’m currently focusing my energy on which type of overnight bag to buy. It’s been years since I bought a new one, looks like current one won’t suffice. Anyone have suggestions on which type? I forgot all the name brand airline stuff. Attachments, like the external feed bag(s), etc.