Advancemnts - four year look back

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11-23-2018, 11:03 AM

#11

chrisreedrules

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Joined APC: Feb 2012

Position: CRJ FO

Posts: 4,599

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otterbox

Only way more flying goes to regionals is if APA votes in more scope relief in to the next contract....

Hold the line. Current regional pilots will gladly fly regional flights in Group 1 aircraft for Group 1 pay on the APA seniority list.

11-23-2018, 12:33 PM

#12

Andrew_VT

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Joined APC: Feb 2007

Posts: 584

Quote:

Originally Posted by TRZ06

Probably similar to the 60 to 65 change IMO.

Age 67 would actually be miniscule compared to the 60->65 change. Early retirement/sick usage/loss of medical rate goes way up at those ages.

11-23-2018, 12:59 PM

#13

TRZ06

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Joined APC: Aug 2013

Posts: 207

I do not disagree. But AA has never acted in anyway like Delta, so that point is mute. Doesn't matter how successful Delta is or will be AA will manage like they always have despite the lesser results. Its unfortunate but its true. So is it wise to look back four years and expect the next four to be the same? I cant even begin to guess...

11-23-2018, 08:11 PM

#14

sumwherelse

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Joined APC: Dec 2010

Posts: 404

Thanks slice. Makes much more sense now!

11-24-2018, 05:03 AM

#15

QuagmireGiggity

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Joined APC: Dec 2010

Position: Reverse Cowgirl

Posts: 545

I was Spring 2015. The union told us their estimate at the time was 7 years. I think closer to 6 now for me.

11-24-2018, 06:26 AM

#16

Sliceback

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Joined APC: Dec 2007

Position: Window seat

Posts: 5,213

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuagmireGiggity

I was Spring 2015. The union told us their estimate at the time was 7 years. I think closer to 6 now for me.

I did some more crunching after screwing up a late 2014 new hires progression. I might be screwing up the retirement/new seniority list/junior CA math but it looks like it dropped 605 numbers from March 2017 to March 2018. That's 110% of the expected retirements. If we assume junior CA drops by 110% of the annual expected retirements a late 2014 new hire is looking at 5 yrs 10 months. I used 12700 as a mid fall new hire. If my assumptions are correct it's August 2020 when the junior CA becomes available.

11-24-2018, 06:31 AM

#17

Sliceback

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Thread Starter

Joined APC: Dec 2007

Position: Window seat

Posts: 5,213

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuagmireGiggity

I was Spring 2015. The union told us their estimate at the time was 7 years. I think closer to 6 now for me.

If the assumptions I used are correct you'd be looking at a drop in junior CA of 78 numbers per month after August 2020. Compare your number to 12,700, divide the difference by 78, and add those months to August 2020. Close to six years?

11-24-2018, 07:14 AM

#18

Craigmac3030

Line Holder

Joined APC: Dec 2017

Posts: 26

How often are seniority numbers updated??

11-24-2018, 07:38 AM

#19

Sliceback

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Joined APC: Dec 2007

Position: Window seat

Posts: 5,213

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craigmac3030

How often are seniority numbers updated??

Eff. every July 1st. List is typically released in the third week of July after all the cross-checking is done.

ORD typically has an unusual amount of people rejoining the list. It's a hangover from the Daley years.

So a guy hired in June might have a seniority number of 15,800 but his relative seniority, after retirements are counted but who havn't been removed from the seniority list, might be 14,900.

Then there's the list of guys actually on property which is about 1,000 less. And then there's the number of guys actually flying the line which subtracts all the CKA, CP's, fleet managers, tech pilots, etc.

So it's important to know which list is being used when making comparisons or analysis.

11-24-2018, 03:50 PM

#20

QuagmireGiggity

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Joined APC: Dec 2010

Position: Reverse Cowgirl

Posts: 545

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sliceback

That would be about 5.5 for me. Haven't really dug in on any math. As group 3 goes away it will throw a wrench into things as more people go group 4 FO...