Advancemnts - four year look back
11-24-2018, 04:16 PM
#21
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Joined APC: May 2008
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Originally Posted by QuagmireGiggity
That would be about 5.5 for me. Haven't really dug in on any math. As group 3 goes away it will throw a wrench into things as more people go group 4 FO...
11-24-2018, 04:33 PM
#22
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Originally Posted by QuagmireGiggity
That would be about 5.5 for me. Haven't really dug in on any math. As group 3 goes away it will throw a wrench into things as more people go group 4 FO...
11-24-2018, 06:36 PM
#24
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
More G4 FO jobs should advance(lower) the junior CA awards. More guys will stay on the G4 FO seat than they will park on the 767. 767 is only a 5% pay bump over G2. G4 is a 23% pay bump. Line holding G4 FO's hustling can make G2 CA pay, especially if the G2 CA is on rsv. So G4 FO's stay which drops the junior CA bid even lower. Being junior on PBS might also be a factor. Bottom CA is now at 77% of the overall list. It used to be around 65%.
11-25-2018, 06:19 AM
#25
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Originally Posted by QuagmireGiggity
Yeah, that's what I mean. Not much left of the 76 by end of 2020 so wasn't sure if you were putting that in you calculation.
Here's some crazy thinking - 77% means the junior guy only has to advance 23% to upgrade at the first opportunity. With 15,000 pilots in 202x that means a 2023 new hire will only need to advance about 3,450 numbers. With the forecast retirements, and a 10% bump, that's about 3 yrs and 4 months to upgrade for a guy hired 1/1/2023. Based on retirements, not on growth. Insane stuff due to the huge retirement numbers in the early/mid 2020's.
11-25-2018, 07:21 AM
#26
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
I was looking at late 2014 DOH's. But I screwed up the upgrade time. It's closer to 6 yrs instead of five years.
Talking with a late 2014 new hire the other day and we were talking about his future opportunities. That is what caused me to look into the numbers. He could be a decent n/b line holder, or 767 reserve, but already positioning himself, due to the two year training lock-ins, for the G4 FO vs CA upgrade. At the two year mark.
The advancements is like the mid and late 1980's all over again. Crazy. But the difference is back then it was based on growth. Now it's based on retirements which is a much better, and reliable, forecast.
Talking with a late 2014 new hire the other day and we were talking about his future opportunities. That is what caused me to look into the numbers. He could be a decent n/b line holder, or 767 reserve, but already positioning himself, due to the two year training lock-ins, for the G4 FO vs CA upgrade. At the two year mark.
The advancements is like the mid and late 1980's all over again. Crazy. But the difference is back then it was based on growth. Now it's based on retirements which is a much better, and reliable, forecast.
11-25-2018, 10:20 AM
#27
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Joined APC: Dec 2013
Position: A320 CA
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Originally Posted by Dobbs18
I thought you do not have a two year seat lock if you are upgrading for the first time on an award...i.e. you bid and get 777 FO and a year later you bid and get 320 CA? its in 17.L.1.e says you will be released to initially upgrade to the next higher category after fulfilling 6 months of such lock in. Not sure if that is what you were saying....
11-25-2018, 10:40 AM
#28
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Originally Posted by PRS Guitars
What I think he is saying...is that guys are skipping bidding for the 767 even though they could be a line holder, to hold out for the G4 FO position. Then they’ll bid G4 FO and be able to jump ship to CA when they want.
11-25-2018, 11:11 AM
#29
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Originally Posted by viper548
I'm doing that. I can hold the 767 in DFW but don't want the 2 year seat lock because I think I'll get the 777 within a year.
And shack to PRS.
Timing of 767 vs G4 vs upgrade vs training after January 1st to get one more FO vacation slot.
Yes, initial upgrade can break a two yr lock-in. There’s another game there - go to recurrent training and then put in for the upgrade. It might extend the length of any withholding. Flying high time as an FO, at CA rates, is a good deal.
11-25-2018, 04:35 PM
#30
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Originally Posted by PRS Guitars
What I think he is saying...is that guys are skipping bidding for the 767 even though they could be a line holder, to hold out for the G4 FO position. Then they’ll bid G4 FO and be able to jump ship to CA when they want.
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