rld1k

You mean the recovery phase when air travel picks up? If you're just doing a small position to hedge against losing your job in bankruptcy then ok.

copy

I’m not advocating going long or short AA, or any airline for that matter. What I am saying though is calling yesterday’s close the bottom is a bit premature. A quick glance at the 6 month chart seems to support that. And more on the macro level, despite increasing TSA numbers, stemming cash burn to 0 is a long way off, as is a return to profitability. Even in a couple/few years when the debt payments come due, I’m not sure there will be adequate revenue to cover it all (I sure hope there is tho). BK is a very real threat, and that $9 could very easily be $0.01. Could also be $15, or $20, but based on the way things are going, that seems a bit optimistic. My original post was meant to counter the narrative that “it’s so cheap, it’s a good buy because it’s discounted so much from where it was...this is how you buy low, sell high, etc.” I’ve seen that sentiment on a lot of the boards and groups I look at. Just because it’s low doesn’t mean it can’t go lower. When AAL was at $25 I didn’t think it could go lower. Then it went to $20. Then the teens. Now single digits. I have a good friend at AA that keeps “buying low” and has been averaging down. Hopefully he keeps his job, but if not, he will have lost tens of thousands in AAL stock value and his job. There will be good upside at some point with AA (can’t imagine the airline going anywhere), but whether that’s AAL or another ticker in post BK reissued shares is the big question and why it’s priced as it is today, and one reason I question whether $9 should/could be considered “the bottom.”

edit: sorry for my contribution to thread derailment. I’ll see myself out. Good luck to all my AA bro’s with October and beyond, as well as with everyone’s portfolios. Hopefully the bleeding stops soon.

GucciBoy

Disregard...

jcool734

So question here. With displacements coming and likely to create a change of aircraft, base an lifestyle in these older pilots how will it be received. Could this create early retirements if they don't want to commute.

Dobbs18

hard to say bc everyone’s situation and tolerance levels are different, but I would say that all the PHL330 and CLT330 guys can stay in “their” current domicile if they want, just on a different aircraft. And most of the 757/76 guys/gals can hold their current base in a different aircraft too, if not all. The bottom E190 people may not hold PHL, the secondary displacements is where the real movement that sucks starts to take place. In short almost all the displaced can probably hold their current bases except bottom E190.

jcool734

That makes sense over all what’s the consensus of the potential furlough. Do you think there will be a lot at the regions level. I was told by a few that some regionals flourished after 9/11 am 2008 crash.

I’m just a terrified pilot time building just over 1000 hrs an just wondering what the next 2 years could look like.

There is a lot of unknowns I get that. 2 weeks ago people were saying American could be in a horrible financial position to get thru this but now it looking the complete opposite.

Thank you.


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AllYourBaseAreB

On a one for one basis, 190 FOs are significantly more senior than the bottom 320 FOs in PHL. Even the last 10. So the biggest risk of being pushed out of base is off the bus as secondaries

Dobbs18

I was just referencing the initial displacement, those whose aircraft are going away and have to bid something new...what happens after that is based on where they decide to go and how many secondary displacements the company decides to run which is a guessing game...

MEFLIGHT

I personally don't think AA will displace any narrow body FO as a result of secondary displacement. In theory, all bases are overstaffed right now. Unless they decide to do it for pure balancing. That could create unnecessary training.

TRZ06

Looking at the numbers of the most directly affected bases PHL and CLT there are going to be a lot of displacements from the retired aircraft. Group 4 contractual requirements aside, I imagine if you were previously group 4 or even group 3 you would do what it takes to maintain your pay. If you are in your last 3 to 5 years the more you can save/earn the better. Even without decreased schedules due to the virus, getting rid of the 767 and 330 categories is going to create a cascade of training events. Why do I get the feeling that we'll all be shocked by the next bid? Unfortunately, not in a good way either.