Furlough Estimates
05-23-2020 | 12:10 AM
#12
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Who is that somebody and what model are they using to predict travel demand going forward that entails no furloughs?
05-23-2020 | 02:44 AM
#13
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The numbers are based on endless cash on hand. Every airline has a limited amount of cash and are trying to outrun the clock. AA would be just fine if Parker could find someone to write him a blank check, but as in all the airlines that is not the case .
05-23-2020 | 03:18 AM
#14
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SCA’s posts have been the only data driven analysis put forth on BTL regarding staffing going into July 2021. He shows a surplus of 1307 after accounting for normal attrition.
05-23-2020 | 03:37 AM
#15
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1307 assuming no more VPLOA or VSTLOA. That’s July 2021. I’m assuming that number will decrease after then and retirements will continue. That 1307 will be 9 months from the big 10/1/2020 date. Not worth a furlough if you used the standard 18-24 months cost/benefit timeline of a furlough.
05-23-2020 | 08:08 AM
#16
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1307 assuming no more VPLOA or VSTLOA. That’s July 2021. I’m assuming that number will decrease after then and retirements will continue. That 1307 will be 9 months from the big 10/1/2020 date. Not worth a furlough if you used the standard 18-24 months cost/benefit timeline of a furlough.
05-23-2020 | 08:17 AM
#17
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while I agree i still think they will clip 1,000 to 1,300 people come Oct 1. If they have to bring some back early so be it, that would be great. But I think they will try and save what they can and be conservative with regards to demand returing. Just my gut based on reading endless amounts of crap on the internet and from company sources. I think we furlough the least amount of people out of the big 3. Fingers crossed. I think our LOAs if they keep up the great participation numbers could keep those numbers down alot.
05-23-2020 | 08:35 AM
#18
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AAL loss per day will be down to appox $50M/day by October (likely less by then). If a furlough of 1,300 pilots were to occur in October, it would save 1% of the LOSS PER DAY - i.e. 1,300 pilots x 73 hours/mo x $137/hr = $13,001,300. $13,001,300/30 = $433,376.67 savings per day. It would likely be more with benefits. The company would then spend $30,000,000 to retrain these pilots in the not too distant future. I don't see the point.
05-23-2020 | 09:45 AM
#19
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AAL loss per day will be down to appox $50M/day by October (likely less by then). If a furlough of 1,300 pilots were to occur in October, it would save 1% of the LOSS PER DAY - i.e. 1,300 pilots x 73 hours/mo x $137/hr = $13,001,300. $13,001,300/30 = $433,376.67 savings per day. It would likely be more with benefits. The company would then spend $30,000,000 to retrain these pilots in the not too distant future. I don't see the point.
-Reserve is 73 or 76 average of 74.5
-Average FO pay for year 1 ($91) and 2 ($138) is $114.
AA can cut cost else where.
05-23-2020 | 01:35 PM
#20
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AAL loss per day will be down to appox $50M/day by October (likely less by then). If a furlough of 1,300 pilots were to occur in October, it would save 1% of the LOSS PER DAY - i.e. 1,300 pilots x 73 hours/mo x $137/hr = $13,001,300. $13,001,300/30 = $433,376.67 savings per day. It would likely be more with benefits. The company would then spend $30,000,000 to retrain these pilots in the not too distant future. I don't see the point.
But then used a calculator and see that is $23k per pilot. Which sounds like it may be in the ballpark
But they break even on that training cost by furloughing for 2-3 months.
However each fulough requires at least two training events. I've heard as much as 4.
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