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Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)
-   American (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/)
-   -   Furlough Estimates (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/129761-furlough-estimates.html)

C5Drvr 06-15-2020 04:02 PM
Latest estimates?


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AB YZS 06-15-2020 05:30 PM
Originally Posted by C5Drvr (Post 3076057)
Latest estimates?


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Zero pilot furloughs.

Dobbs18 06-15-2020 06:57 PM
Originally Posted by C5Drvr (Post 3076057)
Latest estimates?


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well they, APA and company forecasts from Sept vacancy, say we will be about 1,327 pilots overstaffed for summer of 2021. I havent seen any adjustments from those numbers yet, so that to me is the bar right now...hopefully with improved demand and continued LOAs that number can keep going down! If i had to put money down on a bet, which I dont want to, I'd say 1,000 right now. Mostly because its just a round number, but really i have no *******ing clue.

rickair7777 06-16-2020 07:50 AM
Originally Posted by Dobbs18 (Post 3076119)
Mostly because its just a round number, but really i have no *******ing clue.
You and lots of airline managers.

SWA has the only plan I trust... stock up on cash, pay whatever it takes to maintain capacity knowing others WILL bleed out before you, grab market share, and make up the money in the long run. That plan is sufficiently credible that they should be able to borrow even more money than initially planned, if things stay uglier for longer.

Excargodog 06-16-2020 08:09 AM
Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3076267)
You and lots of airline managers.

SWA has the only plan I trust... stock up on cash, pay whatever it takes to maintain capacity knowing others WILL bleed out before you, grab market share, and make up the money in the long run. That plan is sufficiently credible that they should be able to borrow even more money than initially planned, if things stay uglier for longer.
APC still needs a ‘like’ button...

daOldMan 06-16-2020 09:39 AM
Originally Posted by Dobbs18 (Post 3076119)
well they, APA and company forecasts from Sept vacancy, say we will be about 1,327 pilots overstaffed for summer of 2021. I havent seen any adjustments from those numbers yet, so that to me is the bar right now...hopefully with improved demand and continued LOAs that number can keep going down! If i had to put money down on a bet, which I dont want to, I'd say 1,000 right now. Mostly because its just a round number, but really i have no *******ing clue.
The 1000 pilots overstaffed for summer 2021 is about the same number that will retire in the second half of summer 2021 and 2022. Since furloughs really don't make sense if they are less than 18 months, I would guess that being overstaffed for summer of 2021 would mean that we will be understaffed for the summer of 2022.

If they furlough this October, they will need to start the hiring and training process again less than a year later since it takes several months from starting the hiring to actually having a line pilot. Not sure that would make sense.

Dobbs18 06-16-2020 05:44 PM
Originally Posted by daOldMan (Post 3076340)
The 1000 pilots overstaffed for summer 2021 is about the same number that will retire in the second half of summer 2021 and 2022. Since furloughs really don't make sense if they are less than 18 months, I would guess that being overstaffed for summer of 2021 would mean that we will be understaffed for the summer of 2022.

If they furlough this October, they will need to start the hiring and training process again less than a year later since it takes several months from starting the hiring to actually having a line pilot. Not sure that would make sense.
if staffing projections stay the same as they are today I agree with you... We have clearly hitched our wagon to the idea of a faster recovery than some of our peers with an eye towards capturing the market faster than others (besides SWA).

DoggiePoo 06-17-2020 11:12 AM
Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3076267)
You and lots of airline managers.

SWA has the only plan I trust... stock up on cash, pay whatever it takes to maintain capacity knowing others WILL bleed out before you, grab market share, and make up the money in the long run. That plan is sufficiently credible that they should be able to borrow even more money than initially planned, if things stay uglier for longer.
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.

biigD 06-17-2020 11:22 AM
Awwww...somebody needs a hug!

Dobbs18 06-17-2020 11:31 AM
Originally Posted by DoggiePoo (Post 3076892)
It just amazes me. In over 40 years in this industry how you young pilots are always so delusional. Especially you flow through guys. You know exactly how to fix everything. UAL just "sweetened" it's exit deal for personnel, Again, if you knew anything about airline history, bankruptcies since deregulation, you would know that SWA "plan" is Exactly how Every airline ended up in bankruptcy last time. As stated earlier. Your company is in debt up to it's hairline. SWA at least has cash on hand already. The only reason your management has not spoken to you about furloughs is because it would be completely fruitless and a waste of time. You are the first to head into bankruptcy court and will end up on the copping block. Cut up into pieces for UAL,SWA and DL to scavenge your carcass. You think it is all a joke. That I have some beef with AA or something. But when an old timer like me reads these boards and reads yours as opposed to the others. Your delusions of grandeur are beyond limit. Wake up little boys. My only sorrow is for those friends that stayed at AA from TWA and are going to get shafted again. At least they know the drill. You young kids are about to find out the hard way. Just look at the terminals. Look at the type of passenger traveling right now. They are Greyhound people. Very few businessmen. Ticket prices for the few that are traveling are so low they are attracting the people that are getting the extra $600.xx above unemployment. TSA numbers reflect exactly that. Nowhere near enough of a rise in pax load factor to pay for all those shiny new airplanes sitting on the ground. Your CEO is already looking for a way out of the financial mess and Wall Street has already asked him his plan and if that plan is bankruptcy. 30% is a good number to start with just like every other major. When the sale and bankruptcy come it's a staple if you are lucky. Probably not because AA mainline is not ALPA. Your regionals being ALPA are meaningless. The word is out about you young guys and the big freight companies will not take you on the rebound. Good luck, October 1 is. about 90 days away.
TWA....now we know the beef with AA...fyi I wasnt around for that so dont start some ****ing tirade with me about how you took it in the shorts...why not try a different approach to life, I bet you and the unfortunate people around you would be alot happier?!


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