I pretty much assume the ad hominem are simply a denial mechanism. Rather than deal with reality they would rather attempt to shoot the messenger.

 

Or simply distract from the message, in the case of those actually trying to discourage people from posting pertinent facts pertaining to the actual issue of the thread. Like I said, I’m not the thread OP, take it up with them if you are uncomfortable with the topic of the thread, or perhaps just avoid the thread yourself if it makes you uncomfortable. Or simply block me - I won’t be offended. I have for or five people on my ‘blocked’ list myself that I don’t care to engage with.

 

Obsession…..

 

Well all you did is post a link to an article with no explanation or context. Many could see that as trolling. Don't you have a "merger" and an almost certain loss of your QOL contract to worry about?

 

Diversion…

Read the thread title, Al. It isn’t about putative psychopathology of the posters. It’s about probability of bankruptcy. You do believe there is some probability of it, do you not? I mean, the last AA bankruptcy was filed Nov 29 2011. That’s hardly back in the Dark Ages.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...7AS0T220111130

History does sometimes repeat itself.

 

ok, so start making some predictions. If we stay at or near current revenue levels will we go bankrupt? If we stay in a recession for a couple of years will we go bankrupt? If we get a 9/11 or pandemic again, what then? I realize govt largesse is a wildcard, but start making some hard predictions.

 

Easier for him to ride it out. On a long enough time line every airline has a solid shot at BK. He's up to about 3 years of this now. Maybe he's finally closing in. Guy will look like the Nostradamus of APC.

 

Yup. Time to put your money where your mouth is or $TFU

 

Not making predictions. Just posting relevant facts to - you know - the TOPIC of the thread?

Laws and practices have changed since the last time AA declared bankruptcy. Just the pension situation for instance. AMR was able to blow off paying ~$10 billion in traditional pension costs back then. The laws regarding the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation have been changed, but also most traditional pensions have gone away - been replaced by 401ks, which reduces the incentive for a company to declare bankruptcy. Nor can any of us predict the next pandemic or the government’s (over) reaction to it. But there are still pertinent FACTS that ultimately have their effects - the cost of borrowing for instance. I can’t tell you if the Fed is going to raise interest rates by 75 or 100 basis points this week, but either one is going to have an effect on cost of debt service and a non-trivial one.




And you better believe that ALL the CFOs are watching them.

 

My money is - for the most part - in a well diversified collection of mutual funds (including some that are holding AAL, bankruptcy is certainly a risk but far from an inevitability. ). I said I was a buy-and-hold guy and I am. And that’s what I’d recommend others do over any single stock or company, but it’s a free world. Invest your money anywhere you like.