View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
Yes
219
70.65%
No
91
29.35%
Voters: 310. You may not vote on this poll
Bankruptcy
01-16-2021 | 05:13 AM
#161
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 478
Likes: 85
No one outside Dallas knows what the daily cash burn really is, and no one knows how long it will continue. However, there is a number that triggers BK at American. That number exists at DL, NK, AS, etc.
The fact is that AA is beyond no doubt the closest to that number where cash flow takes the organization to cash on hand which is required for a DIP reorg.
01-16-2021 | 05:29 AM
#162
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,126
Likes: 84
“About” is a general term.
No one outside Dallas knows what the daily cash burn really is, and no one knows how long it will continue. However, there is a number that triggers BK at American. That number exists at DL, NK, AS, etc.
The fact is that AA is beyond no doubt the closest to that number where cash flow takes the organization to cash on hand which is required for a DIP reorg.
No one outside Dallas knows what the daily cash burn really is, and no one knows how long it will continue. However, there is a number that triggers BK at American. That number exists at DL, NK, AS, etc.
The fact is that AA is beyond no doubt the closest to that number where cash flow takes the organization to cash on hand which is required for a DIP reorg.
01-16-2021 | 05:37 AM
#163
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 478
Likes: 85
Personally, I think the on-coming Administration is going to face lots of pressure to nationalize that debt, along with the States and municipalities with massive unserviceable debt/pension obligations.
01-16-2021 | 05:51 AM
#164
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,237
Likes: 254
and this is true for us all....
Basically, EVERYBODY would be in the crapper if it wasn’t for the government bailout, but the flying has to come back reasonably quickly or EVERYBODY is screwed. The government won’t keep shoveling money at us for very much longer. And if flying doesn’t come back reasonably soon, if the existing organizations and workgroups are furloughed or terminated, it will eventually be cheaper just to have new startups like Breeze take over the flying once it does come back. Either that or the general population needs to be convinced to just accept the casualties and move on before the damage to the whole economy is even worse.
01-16-2021 | 05:54 AM
#165
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,681
Likes: 165
Kind of like being worried because your 6 year old daughter is closer to the age where kids start dating than your neighbor with a 5.5 year old. According to an industry study that our union put out, Delta and United both have more cash, but only about 6-8 months worth. American might have less attractive interest rates on their debt and have a deeper hole to crawl out of than others, but they’re not going anywhere. They’ll just spend more time paying back the debt than their competitors will.
01-16-2021 | 06:24 AM
#166
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,126
Likes: 84
01-16-2021 | 09:04 AM
#167
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,576
Likes: 146
From: Left
I think it would be easier to allow mergers they otherwise would have not allowed .
01-16-2021 | 09:20 AM
#168
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
A merger would only solve the issue of a failed business model. I think the business model is sound, the state of the market is the issue. I believe the airline sector can only heal with the end of the pandemic.
01-16-2021 | 09:31 AM
#169
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,681
Likes: 165
I would normally agree, except I think allowing mergers just creates another massive failure of an airline. If you believe that all airlines are in deep trouble if there isn’t a turn around relatively soon (as I do), then what does allowing mergers solve? AA may be in the worst shape, but if we are at the point where only a merger can save us, I believe everyone is doomed.
A merger would only solve the issue of a failed business model. I think the business model is sound, the state of the market is the issue. I believe the airline sector can only heal with the end of the pandemic.
A merger would only solve the issue of a failed business model. I think the business model is sound, the state of the market is the issue. I believe the airline sector can only heal with the end of the pandemic.
01-16-2021 | 09:35 AM
#170
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
You wouldn’t merge now, you’d merge what is left after the carnage is over, but I don’t really see bankruptcies or mergers. We don’t have to be at 2019 levels to stop the cash burn or even be slightly profitable. The airlines will get to a sustainable level as smaller companies, and then grow back according to their abilities.
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