With the recent events regarding negotiations within American and the AIP that’s been reached at DAL, what’s a best guess on a realistic timeframe for AA/APA producing an AIP? I imagine the DAL AIP has lit a small fire under the collective butts of those that would broker it, but it seems very far away at this point. Given the looming “recession” and other socioeconomic problems, I’m just curious what the consensus is (if there is one at all). Thanks!

 

Realistically. 2025.

 

If the DAL AIP becomes a TA and passes, I think we’ll have an AIP and then TA within 2 to 3 months, then a couple months to road show and vote. AA will start losing many more new hires if they don’t match DAL on rates and retirement at the very least. QOL will need to be worked out. I was not optimistic before, but am more so now.

 

I agree. Once the Delta TA passes I think United will be next followed by Southwest and then American. I’d imagine all four Big 4 carriers will be within a few dollars of each other within the next 12 months.

 

Lol no. If they drag their feet that long they will lose alot of new hire talent.

 

Our geriatric Union moves at a snails pace. They also like to spread everything out over months to give the BOD more excuses to have more conventions with catered meals at luxury hotels in Dallas. So last month was forming the new negotiating committee, this month's luxury convention was to determine that we need a new survey. Next month will be to go over the results of that survey with the "SMEs". In February the BODs will get anther paid vacation in a Dallas 5 star resort with catered meals to tell the Negotiating committee what to negotiate with the company. and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on and so on

So before you get too excited about "time-frames" just realize that it hasn't even started yet, we are a long way way from even that.

 

At least another year. And until we retire at least another 5000 that's the wAAy it's always been types, nothing will ever change.

 

I think we are a minimum of 6 months away from negotiating anything, and likely 10-12 months away from negoting anything that comes close to what Delta got in their future TA. It will boil down to the company being willing to match Delta pay(at a minimum) and actually being willing to allow QOL increases for our pilots. So far, they have not shown that they are willing to entertain any significant changes/increases that would bring us even close to industry-standard levels.

Just like Delta, it will likely take upper AA leadership actually attending negotiating sessions for us to get anywhere. Otherwise they will claim one thing publically, while behind the scenes they are directing the company negotiators to slow-roll the pilots and not agree to anything. Classes will always be full at AA, even if we do make less $ and have worse QOL than Spirit amd Jetblue. There is no incentive for AA negotiators to negotiate anything close to what Delta got. We have not even asked for mediation yet. Until we file for mediation, imagine whatever time line it takes to achieve a TA, being moved in the future day by day by day...always leaving us x amount of days away from a TA.

 

Delta contract talks "re-opened" post COVID in Jan 2022. (They originally opened in 2019) but I think everyone had a gentlemens agreement that COVID changed things)

December 2022 it appears they have a contract

1 year for Delta if we are using Jan until now

 

In my opinion AA management will have to move quickly.

Delta being the first mover will attract new hires. United’s massive expansion will attract new hires and I believe Kirby will move to quickly close pilot negotiations with a contract similar to Delta.

American and Southwest are a distant 3rd choice for new hires. By Summer 2023 it’s going to be a problem and slow their ability to grow.

The recent quick to close deals at Spirit and JetBlue show just how bad the pilot shortage is getting.