Originally Posted by Easyflier301

The interesting thing here is time to upgrade has a lot to do with human behavior, not just seniority movement (as the flight department guy is probably talking about). UAL has new hire CAs not because they have hit their airline growth or retirement peak, but because so many FOs choose to bypass and stay in their current seat. A lot of things are changing at AA with the new contract. We can see it all around us. MU seems to be through the roof. Reserves getting used even less than before. PM/PR has dried up in a lot of categories. Reserve call-outs over Thanksgiving seemed very light due to the implemented holiday pay. Trip trading seems to be getting easier as staffing equalizes and brand new lineholders are seeing “green trips” for dropping.

I guess we will find out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of FOs become very happy with their seniority and current pay rates and choose to bypass. That would make upgrade times fall even further for those who want it. Combined that with the growth forecasts and increase in XLR and WB to deliveries over the next 3 years, and predict it will continue to fall (age 67 notwithstanding…)

Originally Posted by Sliceback

All the new pilots since September 2021 (4000+?? or roughly 1/3 of the 2020 pilot corps) are part of the manning/reserve equation. Has block hours increased by 1/3 since September 2021?