AA/US combined is approximately what, 15k pilots?

With the consolidation from SLI, the implementation of PBS, and the combination of the international and domestic operations, what size do you anticipate the pilot group to be in the upcoming years?

 

Don't know answer for the total group size but I did hear that the plans are to hire over 600 in 2015.
CG

 

PBS alone on LAA side will decrease ~1500 jobs, says prior management. So combined probably 2200 less jobs. Sounds like a lot, bit it's really "only" 15%, which is reasonable when compared to other airlines when they realized the "efficiencies" of PBS. This is to operate the same amount of flying.

But when AA is able to realize the synergies of the merger and start closing, probably 2-3 bases in all, another 1500 jobs gone.

IF domestic/international statuses combine, -400 jobs.

I see before their recall rights expire within the next 2 years, 500 or so deferred recalls will return.

So all I all, that's 4600 pilots AA will not need to hire to replace retirements when all this happens gradually.

Let's say I'm overly pessimistic, we'll just call it 3500 then.

So I see hiring starting from later next year come to a halt or to a trickle for 3 years or so.

This is of of course is best case scenario with the economy staying great and no black swan events.

 

This is a copy cat industry. See the delta and united mergers for guidance.

Well except copying pilot contracts

 

Apparently, the other airlines aren't very good at realizing efficiencies, because AA already has less pilots per plane than United and Delta.

Base closures aren't likely. 2-3 base closures isn't going to happen.

Other than that, nice job trolling!

 

The less pilots per plane I believe is due to less wide bodies and international flying.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

At the time of the USA/AWE merger, those combined airlines had eight crew bases. They now have four.

Parker does not like multiple crew bases.

If I were based in BOS or PHX, I might be a bit concerned.

(And is STL still open? If so, I wouldn't bet on its long-term prospects, either...)

 

STL is gone already. PHX isn't going anywhere. The AA presence on the West Coast is sorely lacking. LAX can only be grown so much...and that's not much. BOS? US spends a fortune on hotel costs there each night. Will it close? I suppose crazier things have happened, but I wouldn't put my money on that. There's a lot of money to be made there.

Believe what you want...but, hey, here's a hint. If the plan was to shrink the airline and the pilot force, would they be hiring 50-75 a month right now? No...hiring would have halted at the POR.

 

Wow. Lots of really bad info on this thread. Nobody knows the answer, purely speculation. The new AA can't afford to shrink.

 

LUS has 7 hotels they are using right now in BOS, can't imagine it closing as an AA base.