I agree 100%. This job is a great, great, great job, but it isn't in the same league as Delta, American, United, UPS, Fed Ex, or Southwest. Hopefully we'll get there one day though!

 

I came up with 1,014 total pilots, 424 CAs/590 FOs (does not include the NH slots), with 58 hired and 46 gone since late January.

I didn't look into who retired vs. attrition. I think we lost 53 all last year, with a total of 15 lost to other outfits, which is our historical average.

 

I've counted up the totals 3 times off of the vacancy award and came up with 1009 each time... Unfortunately they don't post the list from January so I can't go back and see how many we've lost to retirement and then guess on who's left for a major over the course of 2014, but we've hired between 50 and 60 and the list is about the same size. If memory serves correct we had between 30 and 40 retiring this year and there's still 5 and half months to go.

I get that historically we've lost 15 a year, but historically American, United, Delta, UPS, FedEx, and Southwest haven't been hiring at the same time. With the data that we do have I'm saying we lost 7 last month. That's 84 a year. Will that hold up? Maybe, maybe not. Personally, I hope it does so we'll have some extra negotiating chips come next year...

 

The seniority list in March listed 1013 which included two NH classes.

 

Yup, my mistake. Make that 585 FOs.

I think the hiring will accelerate as time goes on. Hopefully it peaks in 515 days.

 

I hope it peaks now. Hopefully next months total is 990 and 980 after that. I hope the billion open time emails a day keep coming like spam. If they want to expand they'd better change it now because they're struggling to stay where they're at. My hopes are that the attrition brings them to the table early, but I doubt that'll happen...

We do know this... These majors are going to have to hire for the next 10 years when you look at the average age of their pilots so I'm not too worried about it subsiding for negotiations next fall.

 

The other factors for pilot hiring: Overseas.
-A thread was just posted on this website about how Chinese airlines just got permission for 74? new routes. They are expanding thier intra-Chinese flying and their regional feed.
-Emirates just had a roadshow in Singapore, to recruit new pilots, and ZERO pilots showed up.

Also, I think that AA/UAL and DAL will all end up with fairly strong flow-thru type agreements for many of their regional pilots. If that happens, then there is a lower chance that those pilots will want to go to Atlas, or other non-Big 3 carriers, and lose their flow-thru to their major.

I also hope that this developing pilot shortage helps us get better T&Cs at Atlas. Just flew with a guy who told us of his fellow Atlas pilot: He completed indoc at one of the Big 3, then left for a "better" Big 3 position. I had also heard previously of an Atlas guy who had a class date at all three of the Big 3 airlines, and was trying to figure out which two he was going to turn down.

There has been a LOT of open time lately, and it seems more flying.

 

It's been crazy. They used all 8 of my VX days in this stretch. I don't normally VX, but might as well get it while the getting is good.

 

Heard a rumor that the company was pulling BCFs out of the desert. Who exactly do they plan to crew them with?

 

If we keep losing 13 pilots a month that's a good question...