1. I think you will see the human interaction taken out of the atc system first, with automated control of routing/altitudes directly from a ground based computerized system that can talk to and control the aircraft's autopilot. While technically possible today, even that I would put in the 15-20 year range.

2. Many of us have done this single-pilot. It's not that hard, but it is fatiguing. If you take a pilot out, you likely have to decrease pilot utilization to decrease risk, therefore no real cost savings. Cost or mandated safety are the two big drivers of change, so I don't see a big push from anyone to go single pilot in the next 20 years.

3. Eventually we're going to get to the point of automated scramjets flying LA to London in an hour. Or Elan Musk is going to build 600 mph underground mag lev trains that connect everywhere domestically. There will be a next generation that makes air travel as we know it obsolete. It's inevitable. No one riding a horse in 1890 thought the car would take over. However, big leaps in aviation tend to come from the military first. Without WW1, the fledgling aviation industry probably stays as a fringe hobby for another decade or two. WW2 brought us jets. The Cold War space travel. GPS, drones, etc. The amount of capital to bring revolutionary change to the 121 world is mostly beyond what any one company can effect. I put you at 50 years out from an automated aviation industry (which may not be even "flying" as we know it anymore).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...tesla-model-s/

Also, this.

https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hacker...-jeep-highway/

 

Yes. There will be a learning curve. I still fully support cars becoming fully or mostly automated.

 

Until it snows. But I guess by then everyone would just get a snow day.

 

The only thing that talks is money. If the public hears that this would dramatically bring down ticket prices, they will demand it yesterday. Furthermore, if airlines want the FAA to sign off on pilotless cockpits, it'll happen yesterday. Personally, I believe we are 5-10 years away from losing the first officer, and 15 (give or take) from being completely automated. It will be overall less safe, but when money talks, things happen

 

Just think how pilots used to talk about flying in clouds, using autopilot or letting an airplane autoland. It is going to take awhile to get there, but I'm confident it will. Snow blocking the street lines, they can always put metal chips in the paint so cars stay in their lane using nfc type tech. Don't think for one second that a computer would be less capable of maintaining control in the snow. They have more sensitive sensors and just more data in general to let them know well before they start to skid. It's a matter of time. Start preparing yourself for it now.

 

You may be right. But there are still vast areas of this country served by gravel roads etc. I wonder if we will get to the point where some will not even be able to drive a non automated vehicle, just like now many have no clue how to drive a manual transmission.

Right now, despite the amazing automation, there is still often a requirement for pilot intervention. We've got a long way to go. The mix of human driven cars mixing with automated vehicles will be interesting.

 

There's no significant cost savings with this, and if they were, it's not as if demand would skyrocket for air travel; in essence the cost savings could either be seen by increased profits to the execs or lower tickets to the pax- either way it's break even, not even accounting for the initial costs and risks

 

How do you figure there's no cost savings? By cutting out one pilot in 5 years, which is highly likely, you just reduced your cost by billions. By cutting out the other pilot in 15 years, the cost suddenly gets reduced to 0 dollars to pilot a plane. The technology pays for itself within a year, and the public doesn't care because ticket prices are lower. Plain and simple.

 

Come on. Single pilot in 5 years? There are planes under development and in early production that are two pilots that haven't even been delivered to airlines yet. A330neo, 777x, A321neo. Are they just going to be able to alter these planes that quickly and efficiently for single pilot ops? Keep dreaming...5 years. Not saying it's going to happen but we may have some time