80ktsClamp

I think it's funny people point to cargo as being the first to adopt pilotless cockpits. Look at their history: they have been the last to park their planes still with FEs, with some still flying around with FEs.

The next gen aircraft being developed now are still 2 pilot, and even cargo trains are still two "pilot." Given that the next gen are still designed to be two pilot, and airliners pushed beyond 30-40 years... we don't have anything to worry about for a while. Maybe when I retire 29 years from now we'll see that beginning to take hold...

ShyGuy

29 yrs more? For when you started, you must be doin your finances wrong if you have to work til 65...

jcountry

It will be decades (at least.)

If all the silicon valley brainiacs can't get something like this figured out:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017...y-bot-drowned/
They will have quite a ways to go before automating anything that actually matters.

This dumbass thing had one job.... One extremely simple job. Unfortunately, it didn't go so well.

(Most people don't understand AI. It's a lot like the early days of PCs. A lot of people were intimidated about trying to learn computer stuff because they assigned way, way more capabilities to a PC than it actually had. Today, people do the same thing. AI is very much just a bar trick at the present. People who are honest about the technology understand that it is very, very limited.)

horrido27

Many of you might want to pick up (better yet, get a subscription to) Aviation Week & Space Technology.
Unmanned aircraft have been running supply missions for years overseas to test it's feasibility.
It was successful. Now they are taking it to the next step-

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/lockhe...ghting-drones/

Then you have this. They have taken the Piaggio Aerospace P.180 Avanti II business aviation aircraft and turned it into-

Piaggio Aerospacespace - P.1HH HammerHead

People need to learn the difference between Autonomous, AI, Remote control, Drone and reduced manning.
I do not believe we will EVER see a passenger flight flown without a pilot onboard. However, I fully expect to see both passenger and cargo being flown by reduced manning with a remote pilot sitting in some control station.
The question is when?

Let's be honest. We already have Autonomous in most of our aircraft. We have autopilots. Different levels based on age of aircraft, and what the airline decides to buy.
Keep in mind, even the newest A350/B787-10 can't rely on it's automony (CatIII Autoland) if it's landing at an airfield that doesn't have a CatIII certified ILS.
At the same time, we can all remember times (in this past year?) where something was MEL'd. Center Autopilot?, Auto throttles?, etc..

Yes, there are many problems to overcome. But then again, the way technology continues to evolve and make major gains, it would be foolish to believe change will not happen within the next 10-15 years.
Just my opinion.

Motch

jcountry

I have flown several generations of aircraft. I find myself solving much more opaque and goofy problems in an airbus than in any previous airplane.

Automation is a double-edged sword. Airbus pretty much took stick-and-ridder skills out of the equation, but they created a computer network that you better know what you are doing to manage-and you better watch like a damn hawk.

Look how many crashes in the last decade have involved Airbii..... There are reasons for that, and screwy automation is a very big component.

Machines are simple to manage. They do machine stuff. Networks sometimes fail in very strange ways. Personally, I have seen some things in an A320 which have no explanation in the book, from check airmen or from anyone else. When I flew purely mechanical planes, every failure always made logical sense-and was very easy to figure out. I have to jump in and make the plane do something right at least a couple times a month. With older generations, that wasn't even a thing. They would do exactly what you told them to do, every time.... No surprises.

An airbus will fix some poor stick and rudder problems, but it will eat your ass up if you are a poor manager of automation.

Mesabah

AI won't cut out the pilot, it will cut the current pilot's salaries in half, just like the last round of automation did. Consult your current pay check for proof of that. Purchasing power is down 50% or more for all pilots, from as little as 20 years ago.

80ktsClamp

As usual, you're a good bit off the mark.

My purchasing power is the same as my dad at NW in the early 90s. He was a 320 captain then, and I'll be one later this year.

Crown

we talk about it because you have your head buried. It's coming, and a lot sooner than you think. I'd dust off the resume.

tomgoodman

We used to joke that switching from the 727 to the 757 increased your workload during preflight, when you were already busy, and did everything for you in cruise, when you were already loafing.

C130driver

5 years? Can I have some of what you're smoking?

I've seen this article thrown around: First, it didn't land the plane, it interfaced with the autopilot during an autoland; it literally pushed buttons. Second, it managed a simulator during CAVOC conditions. What happens when you have you have to hand fly an approach to landing in gusty crosswinds and on an icy runway.

Also, not sure you know anything about the C-17 mission if you think the autopilot just drones from point A to point B.