Originally Posted by Hacker15e
(Post 2513025)
I don't know that everyone is. I hadn't heard that until your post, actually.
Airmanship is a judgment and decisionmaking skill (which obviously includes use of automation). The one thing that AI hasn't been able to crack, even with the most advanced artificial intelligence today, is the ability to make decisions in a dynamic environment. In the long term, that extremely human characteristic is going to remain the reason our jobs are not going to be replaced by "automation" anytime soon. One of my pet peeves is when friends/family/people ask me about the autopilot or automation in general.. There is a true perception that we are pretty much doing nothing but watching the autopilot do its thing... I sometimes use the analogy of vehicle cruise control that does a great job maintaining speed in the car but has no idea that it is running up on another vehicle...if you were the only vehicle on the road or the only aircraft in the sky there would be no issue....unfortunately there are hundreds of decisions to be made every flight because it is a dynamic environment.... obviously self driving vehicles have gone well beyond cruise control but the artificial intelligence required to fly a plane will require exponentially more factors to be considered than driving a 2 dimensional land based vehicle like a train or car... Now that I've said that we can all be amazed when some 12 year old kid from the Midwest comes out with prototype software next year..... Speaking of which, I wish that same kid would focus on an improvement to PBS first.... |
Originally Posted by galaxy flyer
(Post 2513338)
If there is any form of transportation ripe for automation, it’s trains. They work in one dimension and two directions—forward and backward. They’re not going anywhere else, nothing happens in a hurry, either. Not even started happening. One coal operator automated a private train hauling coal about 20 miles on their property thirty years ago, closed now. Never duplicated.
GF |
Originally Posted by galaxy flyer
(Post 2513338)
If there is any form of transportation ripe for automation, it’s trains. They work in one dimension and two directions—forward and backward. They’re not going anywhere else, nothing happens in a hurry, either. Not even started happening. One coal operator automated a private train hauling coal about 20 miles on their property thirty years ago, closed now. Never duplicated.
GF |
Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine
(Post 2512571)
First, that small company will produce a working pilotless plane. That plane will then spend 5-10 years proving that it is safe. Then, someone must build a large part 25 certified pilotless plane. Once some airline buys it, they will have to operate it with 2 pilots for about 10 years before they even think about changing regulations to let it be flown with 1 pilot. Step 1 - single pilot: "When I mentioned to Rob Dewar that the AHMS had the potential to make the C Series the airline’s first single pilot aircraft, he replied to me saying that this had been envisaged from the very start of the program. However the absence of regulatory framework which adds up to the rejection by the public of such technology left no choice for Bombardier than to let this technology be put to one side. Remember that whilst these two obstacles are currently very much present, if in 20 years the situation were to change then it would not be necessary to redesign a new aircraft." https://aeroemploi.ca/nouvelles/n/19...-c-series-ahms |
Originally Posted by Omnivorous
(Post 2512499)
Everyone is familiar with the phrase "automation airmanship." I think we all know what is lingering over the horizon... somewhere--AUTOMATED airmanship.
What are the projections for when Siri takes over the Boeing (presumably opinion-based)? "Hey Siri, shoot the RNAV" in 10 years? 20? 40? I suspect we will go single-pilot before the robots take over, doubling the size of the pilot labor force. I am curious to hear what others think about the state of the future. (Please prove me wrong, by the way). |
Despite the hype, AI is nowhere near what some people would have you believe.
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-autopilot-why-crash-radar There will be problems. Significant numbers of real self driving cars are at least a decade away. Airliners are way more complex, and operate in a far less forgiving environment |
You guys are extrapolating the past and thinking technology grows like this:http://berryberryeasy.com/wp-content...stconstant.png
When in reality it happens like this: http://tonybarlow.net/wp-content/upl...dTechGraph.jpg People who are so sure that "anyone alive today" will not see this are likely wrong. |
Originally Posted by Dirty30
(Post 2512779)
What's an RNAV? :D (sarcasm, we don't fly that on the legacy herc)
|
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 2514603)
You ain't a real pilot if you haven't shot at least one ADF approach to minimums.
GF |
Originally Posted by 50SeatsofGrey
(Post 2514466)
You guys are extrapolating the past and thinking technology grows like this:http://berryberryeasy.com/wp-content...stconstant.png
When in reality it happens like this: http://tonybarlow.net/wp-content/upl...dTechGraph.jpg People who are so sure that "anyone alive today" will not see this are likely wrong. I think everyone grasps the rate of change when it comes to technology. The thing you fail to understand is: Just because the technology is there, doesn't mean it's going to be implemented. |
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