Aspiring pilots, we may be effed for a while
04-09-2020, 12:25 PM
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 285
Originally Posted by LoneStar32
It's amazing how worse this all looks even in the short time from when this thread started. It is now looking like the pilot shortage even when factoring the retirements over the next 10 years is permanently gone, especially when considering the time it will take to recover from this and the inevitable restructuring.
Without hiring at the Majors, there will be little movement out of the Regionals. I expect their hiring needs to plummet over the next 5 years. That means mins for hiring will climb back up to what they were during the lost decade, i.e. 3500TT with at least 500ME.
That means many pilots will have to go the Part 135/91 route for a few years before being competitive for a Regional. It's amazing because just a month ago those operations were struggling to attract pilots. Now they will be flush with them for the next few years.
It seems like every week that goes by the pilot industry looks twice as worse as it did a week ago. It just keeps getting bleaker and bleaker.
Without hiring at the Majors, there will be little movement out of the Regionals. I expect their hiring needs to plummet over the next 5 years. That means mins for hiring will climb back up to what they were during the lost decade, i.e. 3500TT with at least 500ME.
That means many pilots will have to go the Part 135/91 route for a few years before being competitive for a Regional. It's amazing because just a month ago those operations were struggling to attract pilots. Now they will be flush with them for the next few years.
It seems like every week that goes by the pilot industry looks twice as worse as it did a week ago. It just keeps getting bleaker and bleaker.
Too many unknown factors right now when were are not even 6 weeks into this thing making predictions for an entire decade in the future
04-09-2020, 12:26 PM
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,177
Originally Posted by LoneStar32
It's amazing how worse this all looks even in the short time from when this thread started. It is now looking like the pilot shortage even when factoring the retirements over the next 10 years is permanently gone, especially when considering the time it will take to recover from this and the inevitable restructuring.
Without hiring at the Majors, there will be little movement out of the Regionals. I expect their hiring needs to plummet over the next 5 years. That means mins for hiring will climb back up to what they were during the lost decade, i.e. 3500TT with at least 500ME.
That means many pilots will have to go the Part 135/91 route for a few years before being competitive for a Regional. It's amazing because just a month ago those operations were struggling to attract pilots. Now they will be flush with them for the next few years.
It seems like every week that goes by the pilot industry looks twice as worse as it did a week ago. It just keeps getting bleaker and bleaker.
Without hiring at the Majors, there will be little movement out of the Regionals. I expect their hiring needs to plummet over the next 5 years. That means mins for hiring will climb back up to what they were during the lost decade, i.e. 3500TT with at least 500ME.
That means many pilots will have to go the Part 135/91 route for a few years before being competitive for a Regional. It's amazing because just a month ago those operations were struggling to attract pilots. Now they will be flush with them for the next few years.
It seems like every week that goes by the pilot industry looks twice as worse as it did a week ago. It just keeps getting bleaker and bleaker.
GF
04-09-2020, 12:45 PM
#63
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,281
Originally Posted by VegasChris
I think its still too early to tell. April and May are really messed up. Deaths are not anywhere near what they modelled though. Travel might come back quicker than anticipated. Some scientist might get lucky with vaccine. Maybe the stimulus works.
Too many unknown factors right now when were are not even 6 weeks into this thing making predictions for an entire decade in the future
Too many unknown factors right now when were are not even 6 weeks into this thing making predictions for an entire decade in the future
04-09-2020, 02:29 PM
#64
Long Call Reserve
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: IAH E175
Posts: 132
Originally Posted by powersmurfuk1
Worry will not change the situation, so no point in worrying.
We can't change what is happening so just have to wait or out. Keep doing what you are doing, keep the hours up and let's reevaluate where we all are in 4/5 months.
We can't change what is happening so just have to wait or out. Keep doing what you are doing, keep the hours up and let's reevaluate where we all are in 4/5 months.
Best post so far.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
04-09-2020, 02:31 PM
#65
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,596
Originally Posted by LoneStar32
Without hiring at the Majors, there will be little movement out of the Regionals. I expect their hiring needs to plummet over the next 5 years. That means mins for hiring will climb back up to what they were during the lost decade, i.e. 3500TT with at least 500ME.
04-09-2020, 02:36 PM
#66
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,281
Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
2 years? Maaaaaaybe. But not 5 years. Don't forget all of the retirements that are coming due.
04-10-2020, 02:27 PM
#67
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 307
I think a lot of pilots over 60 will exit the industry this year instead of waiting to get forced out.
Recently hired regional pilots, career changers and college students just got a dose of reality and may stick to flying as a hobby.
A lot of military pilots that were looking to take early retirements and switch to civilian flying are going to be changing their minds.
I think it’s realistic that regionals will be hiring in 2 years. I just hope hiring bonuses and paid ATP training doesn’t go away, but I’m not going to hold my breath on that.
Recently hired regional pilots, career changers and college students just got a dose of reality and may stick to flying as a hobby.
A lot of military pilots that were looking to take early retirements and switch to civilian flying are going to be changing their minds.
I think it’s realistic that regionals will be hiring in 2 years. I just hope hiring bonuses and paid ATP training doesn’t go away, but I’m not going to hold my breath on that.
04-10-2020, 02:30 PM
#68
Long Call Reserve
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: IAH E175
Posts: 132
Originally Posted by DontLookDown
I think it’s realistic that regionals will be hiring in 2 years.
04-10-2020, 05:38 PM
#69
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2019
Posts: 135
Having gone thru the late 90's downturn, 9-11, 2008 Economy Dump, Colgan Air Crash (implementation of 1500 hr rule), Merger-Mainia, SARS, and now COVID-19...I have learned the aviation industry ups & downs are like a pendulum on a Grandfather Clock that repeats itself every 10 years.
With that being said, the Majors missed out on the busy Summer 2020 flying. SEPT/OCT are normally slow months (great for non-rev). Travelers will begin to start flying during Nov/Dec holidays, but at a snails pace due to fear & cheap gas prices.
The Public Traveler has to get back to work, and become financially secure, before they book vacation & travel plans again. Businesses will reevaluate their travel budget, since they will have already worked thru the kinks of using Zoom for tele-conferencing
Jan/Feb 2021 will be slow, as it always is. (Again good time to non-rev).
Late March 2021 will start to pick up with Spring Break travelers. April will have increased bookings as the public is "tired of staying in" & "want to get away". This uptick in traffic will cause the Majors to increase flights for Summer 2021. The public will return and take their postponed 2020 vacations.
Now the Majors will have to hire for these increase flights, and start hiring in March/April 2021.
By the time this trickles down to the Regionals needing pilots would equate to around Sept/Oct 2021. There are enough furloughed pilots from TSA & Compass to supply the Majors (and Regionals) with a steady quality applicant pool.
Sept/Oct 2021 your Regionals will go into a hiring frenzy, to get staffed for the upcoming 2021 Holiday Travel Season. The pipeline will "dry up quickly" as Flight Schools will see a significant decrease in students between now and the next hiring boom of Sept/Oct 2021. This will cause the Regionals to increase pay & Sign On Bonuses to attract applicants to their company.
Then the pilot shortage will really hit with the 2022 retirements, increased flights, and near zero students that continued their flight training to meet ATP Minimums. If you are a new student, you should be able to get your 1500 hours by Sept/Oct 2021 (as long as you can get hired as a CFI, which may be difficult with the reduction of students actively seeking flight training) and be in the perfect spot to get hired.
With that being said, the Majors missed out on the busy Summer 2020 flying. SEPT/OCT are normally slow months (great for non-rev). Travelers will begin to start flying during Nov/Dec holidays, but at a snails pace due to fear & cheap gas prices.
The Public Traveler has to get back to work, and become financially secure, before they book vacation & travel plans again. Businesses will reevaluate their travel budget, since they will have already worked thru the kinks of using Zoom for tele-conferencing
Jan/Feb 2021 will be slow, as it always is. (Again good time to non-rev).
Late March 2021 will start to pick up with Spring Break travelers. April will have increased bookings as the public is "tired of staying in" & "want to get away". This uptick in traffic will cause the Majors to increase flights for Summer 2021. The public will return and take their postponed 2020 vacations.
Now the Majors will have to hire for these increase flights, and start hiring in March/April 2021.
By the time this trickles down to the Regionals needing pilots would equate to around Sept/Oct 2021. There are enough furloughed pilots from TSA & Compass to supply the Majors (and Regionals) with a steady quality applicant pool.
Sept/Oct 2021 your Regionals will go into a hiring frenzy, to get staffed for the upcoming 2021 Holiday Travel Season. The pipeline will "dry up quickly" as Flight Schools will see a significant decrease in students between now and the next hiring boom of Sept/Oct 2021. This will cause the Regionals to increase pay & Sign On Bonuses to attract applicants to their company.
Then the pilot shortage will really hit with the 2022 retirements, increased flights, and near zero students that continued their flight training to meet ATP Minimums. If you are a new student, you should be able to get your 1500 hours by Sept/Oct 2021 (as long as you can get hired as a CFI, which may be difficult with the reduction of students actively seeking flight training) and be in the perfect spot to get hired.
Last edited by lbell; 04-10-2020 at 05:39 PM. Reason: Spelling
04-10-2020, 08:16 PM
#70
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,293
Originally Posted by lbell
Having gone thru the late 90's downturn, 9-11, 2008 Economy Dump, Colgan Air Crash (implementation of 1500 hr rule), Merger-Mainia, SARS, and now COVID-19...I have learned the aviation industry ups & downs are like a pendulum on a Grandfather Clock that repeats itself every 10 years.
With that being said, the Majors missed out on the busy Summer 2020 flying. SEPT/OCT are normally slow months (great for non-rev). Travelers will begin to start flying during Nov/Dec holidays, but at a snails pace due to fear & cheap gas prices.
The Public Traveler has to get back to work, and become financially secure, before they book vacation & travel plans again. Businesses will reevaluate their travel budget, since they will have already worked thru the kinks of using Zoom for tele-conferencing
Jan/Feb 2021 will be slow, as it always is. (Again good time to non-rev).
Late March 2021 will start to pick up with Spring Break travelers. April will have increased bookings as the public is "tired of staying in" & "want to get away". This uptick in traffic will cause the Majors to increase flights for Summer 2021. The public will return and take their postponed 2020 vacations.
Now the Majors will have to hire for these increase flights, and start hiring in March/April 2021.
By the time this trickles down to the Regionals needing pilots would equate to around Sept/Oct 2021. There are enough furloughed pilots from TSA & Compass to supply the Majors (and Regionals) with a steady quality applicant pool.
Sept/Oct 2021 your Regionals will go into a hiring frenzy, to get staffed for the upcoming 2021 Holiday Travel Season. The pipeline will "dry up quickly" as Flight Schools will see a significant decrease in students between now and the next hiring boom of Sept/Oct 2021. This will cause the Regionals to increase pay & Sign On Bonuses to attract applicants to their company.
Then the pilot shortage will really hit with the 2022 retirements, increased flights, and near zero students that continued their flight training to meet ATP Minimums. If you are a new student, you should be able to get your 1500 hours by Sept/Oct 2021 (as long as you can get hired as a CFI, which may be difficult with the reduction of students actively seeking flight training) and be in the perfect spot to get hired.
With that being said, the Majors missed out on the busy Summer 2020 flying. SEPT/OCT are normally slow months (great for non-rev). Travelers will begin to start flying during Nov/Dec holidays, but at a snails pace due to fear & cheap gas prices.
The Public Traveler has to get back to work, and become financially secure, before they book vacation & travel plans again. Businesses will reevaluate their travel budget, since they will have already worked thru the kinks of using Zoom for tele-conferencing
Jan/Feb 2021 will be slow, as it always is. (Again good time to non-rev).
Late March 2021 will start to pick up with Spring Break travelers. April will have increased bookings as the public is "tired of staying in" & "want to get away". This uptick in traffic will cause the Majors to increase flights for Summer 2021. The public will return and take their postponed 2020 vacations.
Now the Majors will have to hire for these increase flights, and start hiring in March/April 2021.
By the time this trickles down to the Regionals needing pilots would equate to around Sept/Oct 2021. There are enough furloughed pilots from TSA & Compass to supply the Majors (and Regionals) with a steady quality applicant pool.
Sept/Oct 2021 your Regionals will go into a hiring frenzy, to get staffed for the upcoming 2021 Holiday Travel Season. The pipeline will "dry up quickly" as Flight Schools will see a significant decrease in students between now and the next hiring boom of Sept/Oct 2021. This will cause the Regionals to increase pay & Sign On Bonuses to attract applicants to their company.
Then the pilot shortage will really hit with the 2022 retirements, increased flights, and near zero students that continued their flight training to meet ATP Minimums. If you are a new student, you should be able to get your 1500 hours by Sept/Oct 2021 (as long as you can get hired as a CFI, which may be difficult with the reduction of students actively seeking flight training) and be in the perfect spot to get hired.
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