deftone

Posting this for a buddy who doesnt have an account here.

He is a student at a Pt 141 school that has been closed since this all began. He had just finished commercial and was about to get started on CFI. The school returns to work in two weeks, however during the down time he applied for, and was awarded a grant to get his CDL. It would mean taking around a month extra time off before going back to his CFI class (the school has already told students that more time off due to the crisis is ok).

I think its a no brainer to take the free CDL, you never know when it might come in useful, but he is worried about losing a 4-6 weeks of the race to 1500. What say the people of APC?

Edit - the training grant is from the state, no ties to an employer etc.

LoneStar32

Get his CDL. There is no more race to 1500, that won't get you a job at the Regionals anymore. And it won't until the Majors start hiring again sometime later this decade. CDL is nice to have because it is a quick job you can get and most people won't mind if you will only be around for a year or two during a furlough since that industry has a high turnover any way.

JabroniJohn

I'm basically in the same position as your friend.

Some are saying that guys like us are very well positioned since the industry will take about 1-1.5 years for hiring to resume. I figure that if I hold onto my day job and instruct in the evenings and on weekends it will take me a little over 1.5 years to get to 1500 hours.

Your friend should definitely get his CDL and a suggestion would be for him to flight instruct part-time after that. If it becomes clearer over time that the industry in indeed picking back up then he could switch to flight instructing full time to try to meet the next hiring wave as soon as he can.

deftone

Thats pretty much exactly what I told him. If I hadnt gotten my CFI at the end of last year I would have been taking that free CDL too! I think the industry will pick up faster this time than in previous downturns, but it still seems smart to have that extra qualification available to feed your family if required.

Firefighterpilo

Serious question. Why do you feel this downturn will pick up faster then the previous ones? Unlike in the past this has caused a world wide aviation catastrophe with airlines all over the world shedding pilots and parking planes. Plus there is no end insight with a vaccine timeline. Not even to mention the devastation to our economy and the world, exasperated by the oil bust

911 was a single day event that took over 5 years to recover from and this has been going for months with no end insight. I believe there will be an initial bump of traffic with people just looking to travel after the quarantine but do not feel it will be sustainable. The following article highlights people feelings

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...avirus/611335/

The Atlantic is a little liberal for me but I enjoy reading sites from all political spectrums. It does bring up some great point many potential travelers are feeling.

I believe this will be a much slower recovery but am all ears to counter opinions? I try to look at all sides of a given position.

rickair7777

9/11 was simply a trigger for some corrections which were brewing anyway. Those corrections (some unfinished business from de-regulation) dragged on for years (BK and consolidation).

If the fear goes away abrubtly (looks like a vaccine is the only way), then the airlines will recover with the economy, and retirements will help.

But I think we're well established in hysteria right now, so it's probably going to take a vaccine. What started as "flattening the curve" is now "saving every single life"... which ensures no herd immunity, ever. But it's just fine if they die of other things, such as myriad conditions induced by economic catastrophe, including lead poisoning.

wannabee

JP Morgan recently released a report estimating 10-12 years to a full economic recovery. But I’m not totally sure what that is predicated upon. Does that assume a gradual return to normalcy beginning now? A month from now? 6 months from now?

At this point it’s clear that the lockdown has done immeasurable harm and- I’m not trying to be political here- but I wish the mainstream media would acknowledge that the initial models were off by orders of magnitude and the harm done to individuals around the world as a direct result of putting life on hold may actually surpass the damage done by the virus itself. About 70,000 “deaths of despair” are estimated because of the effects of the lockdown, calls to suicide hot lines have increased 1,000%, not to mention the millions at risk of starvation in 3rd world countries as supply chains get disrupted, increased substance abuse, domestic abuse, divorce, and so on and so forth. So it’s clear that this is unsustainable, but the question will be at what rate we can get things back to normal. Sweden has shown a positive trend toward herd immunity, and Georgia recently reported the lowest number of new cases since hospitals began recording that data- even as they begin reopening their economy.

Anyway, I’m as optimistic as the next guy, but I’m preparing myself for a long road to recovery.

SSlow

I like the optimistic thoughts here, but keep in mind that the last two downturns in this industry involved L shaped recoveries that took years to get over. Maybe this time it is different, and nobody really knows, but I wouldn't plan on a quick rebound in the meantime. However to keep things in perspective, we WILL eventually rebound from this and unless you're within 10-15 years of age 65 then you'll be absolutely fine.

Valiant

Can't go wrong with trucking
As long as one is able to not get stuck in it.

Personally, I am torn between Dental Hygienist and being a pilot.

Rightup

https://www.businessinsider.com/truc...-report-2020-5​​​​​​
There was a bloodbath in trucking last month. 90,000 jobs were cut. Also, look at respiratory therapist as an option unless you really like sticking your hands in a mouth.