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Old 10-03-2008, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by FR8K9 View Post
Nope.

As a previous small business owner, I can say with 100% certainty that there is no business without a sales staff. The fact that DHL just fired their US sales team is very telling.

They are packing up and going home. UPS will fly their stuff. The US post office will likely deliver it.
DHL has a sales staff, just much smaller than before. The smaller staff will concentrate on DHL's core product, International. In fact this sales staff now is the same size as when DHL was operating DHL Airways as it's US subsidy.

In the Logistics Management article:

But a research report by Robert W. Baird transportation analyst Jon A. Langenfeld said that, according to industry contacts, deteriorating conditions could force DHL to more drastically eliminate its U.S. domestic parcel operations.
We see this as a reasonable scenario, whereby DHL eliminates domestic service, while maintaining U.S. import/export operation surrounded by its global parcel operations,” wrote Langenfeld.
And Morgan Stanley analyst William Greene wrote in a research note that due to anecdotal reports of extremely large volume declines at DHL it is becoming more difficult to see how DHL can deliver $1 billion in annual air revenue to UPS should the deal go through.
Greene wrote that prospects of this deal being consummated are becoming doubtful, adding that DHL’s customers appear to be leaving at a rapid pace, coupled with the fact that the House anti-trust and competitive issue-related hearings could also spike the deal.


So DHL is dropping it's low cost, low yield ground domestic operation, not it's International business.

My bet is the UPS/DHL deal is dead in the water.
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Old 10-03-2008, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Skymaster View Post
My bet is the UPS/DHL deal is dead in the water.
Oh really? How will they move the packages within the USA?

My bet is the scope of the deal is much bigger. I.E. UPS flying the international routes as well as the domestic routes.
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Old 10-03-2008, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by FR8K9 View Post
Nope.

As a previous small business owner, I can say with 100% certainty that there is no business without a sales staff.....

They are packing up and going home. UPS will fly their stuff. The US post office will likely deliver it.
Can't have it both ways. You state there will be no domestic DHL business because they have laid off their sales staff. Then you go on to say UPS will fly their stuff. If you believe your first statement, then there will be no "stuff" for UPS to fly (at least domestically).

I agree with an earlier post, DHL will probably revert to their former pre-ABX operation, and have contractors fly their stuff in from Europe. If all this is true, then there is no need for a $1 billion/yr contract with UPS.
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Old 10-03-2008, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by J Dawg View Post
Can't have it both ways. You state there will be no domestic DHL business because they have laid off their sales staff. Then you go on to say UPS will fly their stuff. If you believe your first statement, then there will be no "stuff" for UPS to fly (at least domestically).

I agree with an earlier post, DHL will probably revert to their former pre-ABX operation, and have contractors fly their stuff in from Europe. If all this is true, then there is no need for a $1 billion/yr contract with UPS.
I edited that post to explain what I meant by DHL's "stuff."

I believe that DHL will contract with UPS to fly their stuff in from Europe, sort it in Louisville, and deliver it too possibly.

I don't know if I as a UPS pilot will sleep better tonight now knowing that the scope of the DHL deal is much bigger than first thought, but I am fairly certain that the scope of the deal is much bigger indeed.
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Old 10-03-2008, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by FR8K9 View Post

My bet is the scope of the deal is much bigger. I.E. UPS flying the international routes as well as the domestic routes.
Won't happen. The UPS/DHL deal is dead.
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Old 10-03-2008, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by FR8K9 View Post
I don't know if I as a UPS pilot will sleep better tonight now knowing that the scope if the DHL deal is much bigger than first thought, but I am fairly certain that the scope of the deal is much bigger indeed.
Just a pipe dream now.
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Old 10-03-2008, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Skymaster View Post
Won't happen. The UPS/DHL deal is dead.
I'll remember you said that in about two months.

Personally I believe the deal is significantly bigger than first thought.
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Old 10-03-2008, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
I with you. Before the hearing in DC, several politicians were quoted as saying that when they met with DHL and UPS officials they were told " that the deal would also, most likley include ground and internation lift to and from NA". I don't have time to surf for it, but I remember reading this and saying to myself that the polictians will not like this since initaly the deal was supposed to be domestic air only. At this point I think DHL has gone further and just decided to enlarge the deal.
Just sounds like wishful thinking on your part. Might as well face the fact that this deal is dying, if not already dead.
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Old 10-03-2008, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Skymaster View Post
Just sounds like wishful thinking on your part. Might as well face the fact that this deal is dying, if not already dead.
Something's dead alright...and it's starting to reek.
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Old 10-03-2008, 05:01 PM
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The writing is on the wall. Pretty soon, DHL America = United Parcel Service. UPS will fly it in, sort it, fly it around, and deliver it!

That's the reason the deal is taking so long because it is much more than first announced. Also, the whole 10 year agreement should have been a dead giveaway from the start. Now it is all starting to make sense.

DHL America will be a website and a phone number.
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