FR8K9

Reading between the lines, I'd say that a furlough is definitely in the future here for the junior guys unless we get some new business. How many furloughs? Well, how many pilots did UPS plan on retiring before the age 60 rule change? There's the answer. When UPS continued to hire through 2007, they were accounting for hundreds to retire in the next few years.

Now add the fact that the three-man airplanes are going away, and I think it is safe to say that we are soon to be wayyyy overmanned (unless we get some new business with the DHL contract).

Finally, although I didn't see the presentation in ANC last week, I understand that the infamous 'slide' dealing with furlough strategies was referenced to explain what to expect in case the DHL deal falls through.

Simply put, if the DHL deal falls through, UPS furloughs pilots.

⌐ AV8OR WANNABE

Freighter Captain - what’s the point with all those speculations? Isn’t it a little bit of scare mongering? I mean, it looks like some captains and senior FOs are discussing the possibility of junior guys/gals being furloughed… Why?

Is it to help us ‘plan ahead’ as someone had suggested earlier? C’mon, don’t you think we know that already and are trying to do just that? Many of us have been furloughed before or have friends who have so ‘planning ahead’ isn’t exactly something new to us. Then again, how do you plan ahead when you’re still trying to pay off credit card debt acquired during year 1?

I'm all for discussions, I really am however I feel like we’re playing the management game here with all those doomsday scenarios - keeping people aligned by keeping them scared… You know, “hey do what we tell you and remember that at least you still have a job…for now…”

Also, wouldn’t it be better if we discussed ‘unity’ arguments and people picking up open time etc. in a forum restricted to IPA pilots only? I mean, APC must be management’s gold mine….

I’m sure that in a few months you and others we’ll be posting “I told you so” comments but until then I just hope you are wrong…

Fire away….

1800 RVR

Dang, so is this what I'm missing? Personally, in the 4 years that I have been here, I have NEVER picked up a trip from open time, and have never accepted a JA. I live just fine on my 75 hr guarantee. Open time ban? Hell yeah, bring it on if it comes to it! In fact, I'm already doing it!!!

Rocket Bob

This is a pointless discussion... Nobody, not even UPS, knows to what extent this economic abomination is going to have on our business going forward. Right now I'm sure it's nasty, and will probably get nastier in the coming months. If furlough notices went out, we'd already be at least a year into this downturn, which started in January of this year. With the steps being taken by all meaningful economic entities, we'd hopefully be coming out the backside of this slide by May-June of '09. Yes, I am staying at a Holiday Inn Express. I would hope that UPS would take a slightly longer look at the furlough option as it would involve a huge number of training events, move packages, etc. Seems like there is a lot of gnashing of teeth within our pilot group in regards to an open-time/JA ban, but I actually have a fair amount of faith in this group to come through if and when that time comes. My neighbor is a major "open time wh***" and even he's been saying that it will dry up should a furlough be announced. Not much we can do about it til it happens. The last time I got furloughed I was freaked, this time I think I'd just blame myself for not becoming a plastic surgeon. That being said, I'm going to throw my hat in the furlough prognostication ring... 576 furloughs..wait..no.. 363 to be exact.. maybe 129. Tougher than I thought, and still, I have accomplished nothing. Back to my triple steak burrito

SaltyDog

Freighter Captain,
Geez Lillian, are you going to apply to be a supervisor? <g> This post smacks of a supervisor plant to chum the waters
Anyway,
my reality based answer to your questioning the potential of the IPA pilots: I say we are more than strong enough. Can I count on your leadership in ANC? You can count on mine is SDF. Remember, many of us have lived and dined in the finest dumpsters of aviation. We remember the sting and have a good habit of bringing our IPA brothers and sisters along, even in death. The few that couldn't are miniscule, and several of those ended up as supervisors after the last round anyway. I, like many, as a junior Capt. live an F/O lifestyle on guarantee like so many and can happily reduce the amount of money I contribute in taxes <g>. We enjoy a good living but most recoil at the thought of dropping dime on the junior folks.
BTW, IPA folks please vote for the EB candidates of your choice. Thanks

JustUnderPar

Fact?
Fat by a few hundred pilots? Really? According to?

IPA membership is at a record low? I thought there were more pilots here than ever before...or did you mean something else?

DHL volume gains much lower than expected? Maybe smoke and mirrors from management? UPS did not exist before this DHL contract right?

Freighter. I cannot wait till we fly together again!

Sideshow Bob

Volume will have to drop dramatically for that to happen. The plans to move so many MD's back domestic is changing, as they aren't going to get as many -400's as they originally planned (38 originally, then 19 now only what we have coming-13) and some are delayed due to the strike. The sky isn't falling just yet, just getting cloudier.

Now back to our regularly scheduled doom, gloom and hand wringing.

⌐ AV8OR WANNABE

You bet ya...

...This automated message has been sent to you by BallotPoint Election Services, on behalf of Independent Pilots Association.

A ballot cast by you over the Internet was recorded on 10/25/2008 at 07:24PM (Pacific), for the election: IPA At Large Scheduling and At Large #2 Election...

Two days ago I also cast my early vote for our Präzident so I'm done with my civic duties for the year...

⌐ AV8OR WANNABE

Well, I see your point but bar & grill might be accessed by a few managers every now and then whereas this forum can be accessed by pretty much anyone...
Either way, my main point was not so much 'where' but rather 'why'?

Freighter Captain

It's the only news around UPS right now, that's why. It's not scare mongering, it's facing reality. Most pilots are way behind when it comes to predicting the economy, this company's decisions, displacements, etc.. Myself included. I'm just voicing my concern that a furlough might happen, and if it does pilots will be acting like it's beyond pale that big brown would do 'such a thing.'

Thanks, but I'll enjoy my line flying any day over working 20 days a month as a virtual slave to scheduling with no union protection--well, at least not yet