No such luck, the fat lady is the one who signals the end of the opera. She hasn't made an appearance yet. The deal is still on the table, it is just taking longer than anyone thought and it remains a moving target. Try to keep up.

 

Just my humble opinion, but here is what I think.

Is it possible to become the world's largest, most successful integrated shipper with a 100+ year history by "screwing up"? No, it is not.

A lot of people are doing a lot of speculation and jumping to conclusions without fully knowing or understanding what is happening behind closed doors. Say what you want about management, but the people who run the show are not stupid - not just my opinion, but rather a statement of fact based on year-over-year financial results.

I'm just a line pilot, so to speculate about what may or may not be happening and why or why not far exceeds my pay grade. I move the jet from point A to point B in accordance with the rules. However, if I may make one speculation it is this: if a contract is or isn't agreed upon, I believe there is a very good reason(s) for it. I don't think "screwing up" is one of them.

 

Nah, I think it was all the pressure you guys and ALPA put on the politicos that killed the deal or at least delayed it for so long that DHL had no choice but to close down the US operation.

Don't sell yourselves so short.

It's a crappy situation for you guys to be in. I personally think you should have tried to get hired by UPS instead of burning down the house. At least one airline would have been hiring when ASTAR pilots started looking for work.

Now UPS doesn't need 35 airplanes, and by all accounts ASTAR pilots will be looking for work anyway.

At least you showed your big stones.

 

Excellent post. It isn't over yet by a long shot. When DHL and UPS or FEDEX announce a deal or the end of negotiations, then you can call an end. Not before.

 

Thanks Jungle!

And as your post eludes to, it isn't over until the proverbial fat lady sings. And for all we know, she may not even be in the building.

 

It might not be over, but the original deal is done! DHL is closing down. Tens of thousands of drivers are being laid off if they haven't been laid off already. ABX is laying off thousands. ASTAR is next.

Guys, the deal is a fraction of what it used to be. And now FedEx is there too.

I'd say the fat lady has already sung when DHL left. The fat lady has left the building too.

 

As hvydrver has already pointed out, the market has already taken DHL's domestic share. This really would not have been controlled by any agreement, unless you think they could have denied consumer choice of carrier. DHL only held about 10% of the US market on their best day.
The prize and the highest margin business goes to the carrier selected to handle DHL's international flows into and out of the US.

 

That 10% of the domestic market helped keep revenues down for Fedex and UPS. This is the real advantage of DHL getting out of the domestic shipping market. It has been a near zero growth market for years, but now there is some growth for the two remaining players plus increased pricing power.

Why make a portion of profits (agreement with DHL), when you keep all of it for yourself? Both UPS and Fedex will be much healthier as a result.

As for who moves DHL international freight, I hope they keep ABX and/or ASTAR. While I would like the extra flying, I would rather see them mitigate some job losses.

 

Agreed, and don't forget DHL's 49% of Polar.

 

FR8K9,

I suppose you're right. We do have big ones. On a serious note though, ask yourself this. Your manglement said that there would have been 35 a/c added if the DHL deal was consummated. DHL's domestic product has now evaporated. So, presuming that it all went to UPS and FedEx, why is your company not hiring and bringing a/c out of storage? Most analysts say it was essentially a 50/50 split between the big two. As I've said before, UPS' network could take DHL's revenues without a hiccup. He's playing you guys. And you're falling for it hook, line, and sinker.