BonesF15

Nice one......

nakazawa

A straight furlough of 300 with NO excess bid, NO vacancy bid - nothing else but cutting 300 off the bottom, will cost about $1 million a month in deadhead costs. The crews furloughed in ANC can be augmented with MEM F/Os and double deadheads. Same with the HKG crews. Estimate might actually be low, because I figured single-departure lines for ANC and HKG. And, I didn't consider the STD (or what ever it's called) plan to get spouses to HKG and back every month, as provided in the LOA.

Take 10 steps back and look at the picture. A furlough might look good on paper, and make PC and his staff feel REALLY REALLY good about gooning us. However, when it hits Wall Street that one of the WORLD's best companies to work for just furloughed crew members, when profits in the second quarter actually went up, dividends were paid, 15 more B-777s were optioned, we're opening a brand new, tricked out, state-of-the-art hub and sort facility in China (that OBTW is late), our good standing and stock value could take a tumble.

Are we really over-manned? Well, with the optimizer being tweaked to the max by crew planning and analysis, we probably are. But, that's why we also need standby crews in SFS, HKG, CDG, Billings, OAK, ..... Crews are getting beat up so bad that they're calling it quits (fatigued), and the only way to salvage the freight is to have an extra crew. Not too efficient. Take a deep breath. Remember, 5 cancelled bids, a failed excess bid, a grossly late B-757 program, an FDA that isn't being manned, Purple Nuggets, and the Company's mismanagement of the age 60 ruling. Toss a furlough letter in there that'll probably drive the stock prices below $50, and I think we'll see a change of scenery in the cubes in MEM.

DiamondZ

You honestly think stockholders care if we furlough?

That info could be spun any which way to the benefit of the company...I just dont see the negative impact to the company name.

pilot141

OK guys, I'm going to try to throw out what we know now, and you can make your own decisions.

08-03 was canceled due to excessive cost. Despite what the company might want, the same rules apply to any future excess - house purchases (remember LAX!), passover pay for HKG CAs, plus the normal training cost of sending guys through the schoolhouse. In other words, a LOT of money.

This leads me to believe that the company will not do a free-for-all excess like 08-03. They will try to force guys where they want them, but success is never guaranteed.

The limiting factor in all of their plans is the down-bid capability. All we hear about is how the company wants to slam everyone into the 727 so they can furlough them.

That is nothing but a company fear grenade. They cannot do this and they are using the threat of losing your job as leverage to manage your expectations. If the options are lose your job or take a 10-hour pay cut you would think a 10-hour pay cut is a good deal. They have managed your expectations, which is the first rule of negotiating.

How do I know that the company is full of BS? Other than their lips are moving?

Look at the training capability. We only have ONE 727 sim. There are plans to maybe get another down here from MSP, but they are in flux. Right now we can train 10 727 crewmembers a month (that's both front and back).

So for the bottom of the list (the guys getting furloughed) - we can train 6 replacements a month.

But- the company decided to cheap out a year ago and hire a bunch of SO LCAs and Flexes who couldn't get passover pay (because that is the most evil thing ever I guess). They got their wish, but they now have 9 Flexes and 4 LCAs in the bottom 100 of the list. If the furloughs start, I don't know how they can keep the 727 pipeline open if they lose 25% of their flexes and 25% of their LCAs.

I've also heard that there are some very junior flex guys in the 757 - junior at Fedex but with 757 experience from other airlines.

And nakazawa, a straight furlough of 300 with no realignment would shut down the 727 the next day. Not saying they won't do it, but chopping off the bottom 300 would shut down the 727 immediately, with no SOs or Fos to fly the lines.

nakazawa

I didn't look at the 727 right seat - but first 300 takes about 39 our of ANC, 16 out of HKG, and 175 off the Boeing. That would mean the MEM crew bus rumors of 300 furloughs first is flawed - which was exactly my point. There is no 'cheap' way out for the Company.

As far as the stockholders go - I care! I suspect FWS cares, especially when the value of his company has been cut in half. I think he's probably also got a threshold of pain when it comes to gross mis-management.

pilot141

Yep - I agree. I think PC and OR are in CYA mode right now, trying to reduce the Express budget as much as they can without exposing their culpability to the board until the last minute.

iarapilot

Subtract 1% and we have another 32%er!

iarapilot

I thought that was heckle.

fdx727pilot

Actually, they would have over 200 FOs and about 100 SOs. Just playing Devil's advocate, but if they parked about 20 or so 727s, they could probably make it work with a very small excess, as they don't have to kick the furloughees out the door instantly. They could stretch it out over a few months, and assuming they don't let furloughees bid in the excess, probably not have much in the way of moving costs or Housing buyouts.


Never say "Never."

Timeoff2fish

So if they park 20 or so 727s how will the freight move? We still have to service the system, whether or not there is 10,000 pounds or 30,000 pounds of freight on a given flight.

Do you really think they could continue to operate?