I personally don't see how we can sustain operations at the current pace without hiring before peak, and that means trained and off IOE before peak. Unless of course we're dumb enough to ratify a contract with PBS this summer then all bets are off. A manager was quoted as saying 20/mo. starting September to a friend of mine.

1. The last bid is showing a lot of B757 FO slots unfilled (41) according to the percentiles. 100% column isn't even showing.

a. Nearly 190 Capt and only 100 FOs on last bid (13 B757).

2. We are projected to fly the same block hours as we did last year.

3. We haven't hired in a long time and lost 100-200 guys since with more to come.

4. Likely no excess now, and still getting a lot more jets coming.

Now if we could get guys to protect min days off this summer we'd have a contract.

I'll put money on hiring after summer, any thoughts?

 

My opinion is that I like the way you think!

 

Agreed! Being that I'm at the bottom of the list I sure hope so...and before anyone chimes in, yes, being on the bottom is better than not being on the list. I am thankful to be where I am. Sadly, why wouldn't they just widely offer draft to cover peak and then sort it out next year. Again, I hope you're right. What you suggest makes sense.

 

Flaps50, please report to Flight Coordination upon landing.

 

They called me a lot last year for draft during peak. Didn't take them being I'm a commuter anyway, but the calls were there.

 

I hope not. I blocked just over 150 hours last year...not even 40 thus far this year. There aren't many people closer to the bottom than me and we are mostly struggling for landing currency. RA and RB are overmanned most days and open time is scarce. I don't have my hopes up.

Just one indicator of many and past performance is no guarantee of future results

 

I hear ya, but that's reserve here at FDX. Scheds doesn't like to use reserves if they don't have to. However, they are going to fly the same block hours with about 150 less guys than last year too do to retirements minimum.

 

My thoughts...

Hong Kong BLGs at all time low, as we lost India flying to 777 and belly freight. Right now about 65 hour average with over half the lines VTO and reserve. Company doesn't like low BLGs in the FDAs as it isn't cost effective. Predict if BLGs don't go up soon in HKG that many FOs will use their 3 years and out option. Better than excess in some ways. They pick where they go based on seniority with no bid required. Maybe excess 5 to 10 each seat. It also could help end the Passover pay issue possibly.

BLGs down fleet wide due to people not being in the right seats. Excess will realign that.

We had a lot of people not working too hard due to being fat in many seats after the earlier than planned 727 shutdown. Many retired, however, lots more here still.

There will be an excess in a few seats and several domiciles and they will fill those empty 757 seats.

I think no hiring till next year.

It would be nice if the company would openly communicate on this issue. But, that would be just...

 

UNlikely!!!!!

Oops, wrong thread.

 

A friend somewhat in the know says BLGs are low do to the company spreading the flying out between fleets more (bigger planes on smaller aircraft routes in cases) to keep the BLGs low. Less reserves required therefore keeping BLGs low intentionally by putting more guys on trips from the get go. Keeps us thinking the skies falling...

He says it's unsustainable for peak do to the extra pairings that pop up, and the requirement for more lift on the longer routes. So he predicts hiring about 80 this year.

Additionally he says, the B727 excess is about to be fully trained out so the main reason we stopped hiring was to finish that process.