Don't forget your marbles.






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Good point. Looks like they move a lot faster than we do. Probably not fair to compare our notional way ahead timeline to theirs. We seem to move a lot more slowly.

 

You may be right; you may be wrong.

If you're wrong, will you still cash the checks?






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"The great unknown".....Here we go again! I suppose based on that thinking, I should always vote yes.

Of course there are unknowns. It looks like 57% didnt want to find out what those were, and 43% were willing to see.

The fact that the TNT deal was done shortly after signing, along with, from what some have said, CRS is relieved that covering trips is now much easier (meaning it wasnt so easy before), we did have leverage.

And the fact that it passed with 57%, to me, is an indictment of how lousy it was.

The yes folks can give their reasons same as the no folks. IMO (I know, nobody asked me) we are a weak, lame, wimpy group that still hasnt learned how to stick up for ourselves. We have selfish pr!cks flying DPs, OT, and draft when they shouldnt. And because of that, some think that if we turn down a TA these folks and others wont do what has to be done. Maybe so. But you dont know until you try.

As I have stated before, Behnke is probably crapping in his grave over our behavior. We all ought to be glad that in the late 1700s there was a minority, whom dispite the unknown, decided to take a gamble.

 

I prefer to think that 57% had enough insight to eliminate enough of the unknowns to realize there wasn't much profit to be gained from waiting. It's like trading equities. The only reason you can buy shares is because someone else thinks it's a good time to sell shares. Both sides have done their own due diligence. Both sides believe they are right. I'm still very comfortable with my position. I've learned nothing new that indicates our negotiating position will be stronger in the next year than it was 5 months ago.
Regarding due diligence, the TNT deal has not been finalized. It is still under review by the EU and will be until they decide extending their deliberation won't net them any more gains. Their timing has a lot more to do with their internal politics than our CBA. They are well aware we would never be released to strike. And it was no secret that we had the company by the short hairs with manning issues prior to the TA being released for a vote. It is also no secret that releasing the TA also released a significant amount of that pressure. Yeah, we're short pilots going into Peak, but we will always be short going into Peak. The company will never base our numbers on Peak manning requirements. That's why they wet lease.
So I did my due diligence and decided our strongest buying position had been before the TA was released and that we were getting weaker every day since. In other words, waiting wasn't going to improve our chances of negotiating a better contract. So sitting around waiting to figure that out was going to cost us the gains we could be making with what was already negotiated in the new contract.
No yes or no voter can definitively declare the other side is wrong. Waaaay too soon for that. We'll have to wait a year or two before we know what the variables that impact our negotiating environment look like during the actual time a newly formed NC would be sitting down across from the company and the NMB.
In the meantime, keep half an eye on Delta, SWA and UPS as they work through their negotiations. And consider rolling your signing bonus into FDX. It's not a bad bet right now.