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Old 12-22-2021 | 04:25 AM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by Pilotchute
The only option for the big 3 and their regionals if they can't staff flights is simply to lift prices to shrink demand.
assuming that’s true… it’s probably a great thing for major pilots and a good thing for regionals

regionals shrink, mainline grows
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Old 12-23-2021 | 02:09 AM
  #122  
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Originally Posted by ninerdriver
Before Covid hit, the majors were planning to scramble to hire for the summer of 2020. Now they need to hire for that wave plus the early retirements. The majors might not grow as much as their original 2020 plans had outlined, but they'll grow some. The majors likely won't catch up in twelve months.
The retirements coming the next few years are going to wipe out the regional workforce for the most part. 1500-3000 retirement per year at the legacies alone not counting for other attrition is going to be devastating. The industry is reactive, so no one even sees the issue as it is.
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Old 12-23-2021 | 05:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Regional8ball
The retirements coming the next few years are going to wipe out the regional workforce for the most part. 1500-3000 retirement per year at the legacies alone not counting for other attrition is going to be devastating. The industry is reactive, so no one even sees the issue as it is.
Whilst there will still be retirements, many of the people who were going over the next few years have already gone thanks to the early out packages given by the majors.
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Old 12-23-2021 | 08:26 AM
  #124  
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Originally Posted by Pilotchute
Whilst there will still be retirements, many of the people who were going over the next few years have already gone thanks to the early out packages given by the majors.
not untrue

but the issue is whether major hiring will allow regionals to keep a viable population of experienced captains.

standing in 7 foot deep water is as bad as 17
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Old 12-23-2021 | 08:52 AM
  #125  
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Originally Posted by Pilotchute
Whilst there will still be retirements, many of the people who were going over the next few years have already gone thanks to the early out packages given by the majors.
The slower attrition over the next couple of years will be offset by growth. United for example has over 170 NB aircraft slated for delivery by the end of 2023. The hiring required for this kind of growth will far exceed what would have been needed if the fleet plan was the same as before the pandemic. They’re going to build a new sim building at TK to house the new Airbus sims that will be needed for the NEO’s and a couple more max sims as well. The pendulum is finally swinging towards the creation of well paying jobs after decades of going the other way.
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Old 12-23-2021 | 09:50 PM
  #126  
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Originally Posted by Hedley
The slower attrition over the next couple of years will be offset by growth. United for example has over 170 NB aircraft slated for delivery by the end of 2023. The hiring required for this kind of growth will far exceed what would have been needed if the fleet plan was the same as before the pandemic. They’re going to build a new sim building at TK to house the new Airbus sims that will be needed for the NEO’s and a couple more max sims as well. The pendulum is finally swinging towards the creation of well paying jobs after decades of going the other way.
How many NB will be retired by the end of 2023? They say that those new orders are for growth, but only the naive can't see through that. How many 777s will UA actually bring back from storage?

The 320 CEOs are getting old and tired, the 752s are going away, and I'm willing to bet many of the GuppyNGs will get parked too.

The economy is going to slow down next year when interest rates go up, unless interest rates don't go up, but in that case we will see more large inflation which will have negative impacts on demand as well.
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Old 12-24-2021 | 03:33 AM
  #127  
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Originally Posted by Hedley
The slower attrition over the next couple of years will be offset by growth. United for example has over 170 NB aircraft slated for delivery by the end of 2023.
Is that straight growth added to the current existing fleet? Or is this to help offset parking some of the older NB fleet in the coming years?
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Old 12-24-2021 | 04:13 AM
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Originally Posted by cornerpocket
Is that straight growth added to the current existing fleet? Or is this to help offset parking some of the older NB fleet in the coming years?
depends how the regionals fare, but it’s supposed to be pretty much straight growth.
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Old 12-24-2021 | 05:03 AM
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No matter what happens, United will make a press release saying whatever suits them at the time.

Cancelled flights? Pilot shortage
​​​​
Contract negotiations? We have no money

Want the stock price to rise? All new planes are growth

​​​​​​Contract negotiations again? All new planes are replacement

All CEOs are just like politicians and only say what they want you to hear to further their agenda.

Did nobody notice that Kirby can say one thing at a United employee town hall, then say the exact opposite on an invertor call?
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Old 12-24-2021 | 07:07 AM
  #130  
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Originally Posted by Pilotchute
No matter what happens, United will make a press release saying whatever suits them at the time.

Cancelled flights? Pilot shortage
​​​​
Contract negotiations? We have no money

Want the stock price to rise? All new planes are growth

​​​​​​Contract negotiations again? All new planes are replacement

All CEOs are just like politicians and only say what they want you to hear to further their agenda.

Did nobody notice that Kirby can say one thing at a United employee town hall, then say the exact opposite on an invertor call?
Well what would you expect on an "invertor" call?
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