How about Mokulele feeder? We get a fleet of 206s to cover the routes with limited 208 demand.

Or! Fedex Super-mainline! We get some Antonov AN-225s to fly the routes too heavy for their 777s!

 

That OO memo on Comply... I mean I'm glad they are stepping up to help out and such but seeing that made me really feel it in the pit of my stomach. Seeing the GoJet, TSA, and now OO hiring memos as each day passes with radio silence has me slowly losing hope. My lease expires in October so that's my Go/No-Go point.

Still hoping for the best. Really been appreciating the attitudes on the line. Despite all that has happened, still seeing smiles and upbeat attitudes. In the words of the wise Teabag Bandit, Hang in there guys...big news this Friday.

 

OO offering preferred interviews? Since I am not on the inside yet .. just curious. My go/no-go I guess is October if I am getting on a plane for training start.

 

Its been advertised as of 8/6, that the "new opportunity" will be announced within approximately two to three weeks maybe a little longer. Point is you should have an answer well before October in regards to what will happen with CP.

 

Clearly, this has already inspired a lot of people to drop apps who would not have done so for a few months (or years) otherwise. And some of those early apps are going to be successful, causing a slow hemorrhage of experience. In those cases it may be good luck for those guys (and gals) and good luck for those that will move up to fill those slots IF TSH does come up with additional flying.

But that can become dribble can become a gush really quickly if this drags out very long. In this environment, anybody with a type rating and consolidation time is a hot commodity, and those with the least seniority have the least to,lose taking a lateral move.

One way or another, management will not be able to drag this out very long.

 

Even if there is more flying I’m sure it won’t be a net gain if aircraft - at least at first. Not having an even tail transition will mean a few furloughs.

 

Meh. Maybe just natural attrition. If a few people leave off the bottom out a fear, and a few move on like they do every month, it might be enough to prevent the need to furlough if there is indeed a smallish net loss of aircraft.

A big loss is another story; the possibility of which we should all be preparing for to some degree.

 

All I know is they better announce something soon. This month.

 

With 20 a month attrition and a gradual drawdown, probably not. In fact, the attrition will probably even go up as more people put out more apps and our captains get sympathy recommendations and interviews from Compass alums and ALPA brethren.

The big problem will be captains. We were already headed toward a captain shortage because of the six month hiring freeze from two years ago. As the senior captains move on, we were going to be short even before this. That meant - for guys like me with just a couple months short of upgrade hours - we would have been upgrading into an environment of short reserve times and prompt lineholding IN BASE.

But if my base is going away and I have to either move or commute to someplace like ORD or IAH anyway, there are at least three regionals that would give me $45-50k in signing bonuses (and in two out of three of those cases an additional type rating) to fly as a DEC for them. Alternatively, I could bid LAX, I suppose, which MIGHT (or might not) get me more TPIC sooner. Career wise, that may be a push. A lot of senior FOs May opt for the money and then Compass will be looking at hiring DECs (and paying DEC bonuses to do it) too.

The point is, this isn’t the regionals of a decade ago. Senior people have pretty decent options. Even senior FOs (which around here is anyone approaching 18 months) have pretty decent options, and junior people have relatively little invested in terms of seniority and are very hireable elsewhere.

Management better provide certainty quick, and let people start making long term decisions. Otherwise the workforce may quickly evaporate on them.

 

Rob said on the last company call that TSH knew that some pilots would get nervous and bail after the Delta announcement and that the gojet memo came out so that any nervous compass pilots could jump ship so as to keep us in the TSH family instead of help the mormons. Now...we get this. This is a miserable sign. Furloughs are on the horizon and they want us to fix the problem for them before we get too fat for only 20 airplanes worth of flying. Around 275 pilots by industry standard.