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However, because it can take several weeks for death certificates to be submitted and processed, there is on average a delay of 1–2 weeks before they are reported. We have a very heterogeneous pandemic experience right now -- different parts of the country and different states are experiencing very different things,” said Jeffrey Morris, director of the division of biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine. “It is kind of a paradox.” So while it’s too early to see what the recent surge’s death toll will be, if the exponential growth in cases continues unabated, increased deaths are all but inevitable. “This particular part of the epidemic is just taking off, and we’re still on the runway,” said Thomas Giordano, chief of infectious diseases at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. “The last thing to happen is the death. We just aren’t that far along with this one yet.” Time LagDeaths are the ultimate lagging indicator, especially with Covid-19. It takes several weeks after a diagnosis for a patient to die. Then it takes more time, sometimes weeks, for doctors to fill out death certificates and health officials to adjudicate the deaths. Only then are they finally added to the official state tally.“You can’t look at deaths as an indicator of where the outbreak is at this particular period of time,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Waiting for data to roll in requires “patience that is hard to muster during a crisis,” said Joe Gerald, an associate professor of public health policy and management at the University of Arizona. But “if you want reliable, complete data, you have to wait for it, especially on deaths.” In Arizona, the time between diagnosis and death from Covid-19 now is about 14 or 15 days, up from four or five days early in the pandemic. Then the state health department must verify the death, so there can be a three-plus week lag between a new case and a fatality being reported, Gerald said.=12pt =12pt |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3090305)
.
Utter nonsense. How would anyone KNOW about decade long latency in an organism that’s only been studied for six months? Latent viral infections in humans include herpes simplex, varicella zoster, Epstein-Barr, human cytomegalovirus, adenovirus, and Kaposi's sarcoma. Granted, those are DNA viruses and not RNA viruses, but even Kuru and CJD can exhibit latency, and they aren’t even viruses, just prions. No reason to think it couldn't occur with coronavirus. And certainly no reason to rule it out so soon. And indeed, researchers are actively considering the possibility: https://medium.com/microbial-instinc...s-7b305fcfe9a8 https://www.self.com/story/coronavirus-reinfection And Mouse Hepatitis virus, which IS a coronavirus, has been shown to be capable of going dormant with subsequent reactivating. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmi...aft=collection https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/4344757/ https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ome_in_AJ_Mice Dr. Muhammad Yousuf highlights the summary below. Current clinical evidence is highly in the two articles. Note in the first article (1) that HCWs who had clinical recovery did not transmit the disease to contacts despite positive RT-PCR tests. Study (2), patients who had clinically recovered but showed positive RNA based RT-PCR tests did not transmit COVID-19 by donating plasma that was transfused to other recipients. This indicates that SARS-CoV-2 virus latency or reactivation is more of a hype than a reality and viral RNA in clinically recovered patient is inactive viral litter or garbage, not an active virus. 1. Article https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339890462_Post-discharge_surveillance_and_positive_virus_detectio n_in_two_medical_staff_recovered_from_coronavirus_ disease_2019_COVID-19_China_January_to_February_2020 2. Article https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341583584_Coronavirus_Disease_2019_Test_Results_Af ter_Clinical_Recovery_and_Hospital_Discharge_Among _Patients_in_China |
Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
(Post 3090833)
At this time there is no evidence of latency. Yes a decade later this could be proven different. But, with this genome, it's just not predicted. None of the colleagues I work with are tuned to this. We are all in agreement of reinfection vs relapse at the moment.
Dr. Muhammad Yousuf highlights the summary below. Current clinical evidence is highly in the two articles. Note in the first article (1) that HCWs who had clinical recovery did not transmit the disease to contacts despite positive RT-PCR tests. Study (2), patients who had clinically recovered but showed positive RNA based RT-PCR tests did not transmit COVID-19 by donating plasma that was transfused to other recipients. This indicates that SARS-CoV-2 virus latency or reactivation is more of a hype than a reality and viral RNA in clinically recovered patient is inactive viral litter or garbage, not an active virus. 1. Article https://www.researchgate.net/publica..._February_2020 2. Article https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ients_in_China |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3090861)
No evidence that people with herpes zoster - which is most of us - transmit it if we donate IGG either. I don’t know why you would consider that proof of anything. Yes, it’s an RNA virus and we haven’t seen that producing latency in humans (yet) but DNA viruses can be latent in other mammalian species and a coronavirus definitely can be latent in lab rats. Time will tell.
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Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
(Post 3090905)
ACE2 receptor involvement and lifecycle of epithelial cells with ACE2 receptors. Much different than Hepatitic and neurological tissues.
https://www.peertechz.com/articles/GJIDCR-6-131.php |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3090945)
meaning almost zero study has been made of other apparently non-involved potential hiding sites. Do you think that with the first chickenpox case someone anticipated the organism would lie dormant in dorsal ganglion cells for a half century?
https://www.peertechz.com/articles/GJIDCR-6-131.php Hey, I'm just telling you what were talking about at work and where we are headed at the current moment.. maybe we're completely wrong.. maybe we're not.. I got a long night ahead of me. Take my information anyway you want.. i don't have time for a wang measuring contest. |
Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
(Post 3091177)
That article was a waste of my time.. I don't need an article explaining rudimentary explanations of latent and lytic phases of viruses I have worked on for over 2 decades of my life.
Hey, I'm just telling you what were talking about at work and where we are headed at the current moment.. maybe we're completely wrong.. maybe we're not.. I got a long night ahead of me. Take my information anyway you want.. i don't have time for a wang measuring contest. But yeah, you are boring me at least as much as I’m boring you. |
look at the inflection point last week:p
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcvfAGKX...pg&name=medium |
Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
(Post 3090246)
We're talking lag at work..
Reinfection case was actually a person that donated convalescent antibodies several times. The patient assumed they were immune. That's all i can say till the case review is published. There are several now being reviewed. A vaccine won't last, airlines have to come to terms that there will be no international flying until this virus is gone for several years. |
Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 3091411)
Sweden has achieved herd immunity, how long that lasts with fleeting antibodies, will be dependent on how long they can keep their borders sealed. The US should be in this position within a few weeks.
A vaccine won't last, airlines have to come to terms that there will be no international flying until this virus is gone for several years. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/3...o-coronavirus/ |
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