TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
05-11-2020, 08:56 AM
#151
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,287
Originally Posted by Excargodog
except it’s compound interest. 20% per week x 20 weeks is 120% ^20 or about 3800%. Of course the rate of increase will slow before then as the numbers get bigger, and international flying may be depressed even longer. Narrow body domestic flying is going to be OK by summer’s end if the current rate of recovery continues, not great certainly, but OK.
filler
05-11-2020, 09:20 AM
#152
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,691
Originally Posted by LoneStar32
lol
filler
filler
Solitude
BY ELLA WHEELER WILCOX
Laugh, and the world laughs with you;
Weep, and you weep alone;
For the sad old earth must borrow its mirth,
But has trouble enough of its own.
Sing, and the hills will answer;
Sigh, it is lost on the air;
The echoes bound to a joyful sound,
But shrink from voicing care.
Rejoice, and men will seek you;
Grieve, and they turn and go;
They want full measure of all your pleasure,
But they do not need your woe.
Be glad, and your friends are many;
Be sad, and you lose them all,—
There are none to decline your nectared wine,
But alone you must drink life’s gall.
filler....
05-11-2020, 01:00 PM
#153
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Position: Bus FO
Posts: 82
Originally Posted by LoneStar32
So if TSA traffic increases 5 times from it's current level by Oct 1st, we'll still only be at 40 - 50% capacity we were before COVID? This is not looking good at all IRT furloughs.
Airlines don’t staff for the low points of the year (like October). The question is what’s the demand forecast for the holidays and summer 21? Those are the numbers that will drive furloughs. Not how we look Oct 1st.
05-11-2020, 01:34 PM
#154
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Posts: 128
Until I see sports stadiums open again, Disney world open, convention centers, concerts going, museums open, and people not afraid to go on cruises then I’ll be more hopeful. Other than that, I don’t know what’s going to cause people flocking back to the airport to fly again. Let alone all the businesses that now see that company travel isn’t so essential in running their operations and working from home is more cost effective. Just my 2 cents. I am a glass half full guy just in case you’re wondering.
05-11-2020, 01:43 PM
#155
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Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
Originally Posted by BoldPilot
Until I see sports stadiums open again, Disney world open, convention centers, concerts going, museums open, and people not afraid to go on cruises then I’ll be more hopeful. Other than that, I don’t know what’s going to cause people flocking back to the airport to fly again. Let alone all the businesses that now see that company travel isn’t so essential in running their operations and working from home is more cost effective. Just my 2 cents. I am a glass half full guy just in case you’re wondering.
Having done zoom and other platforms. They are mediocre at best. Choppy, video's cut out, speaking/sound is delayed and annoying. That's not to mention the security factor, both from "hackers" and from an employee having something set wrong, allowing random people to join, or recording and leaking videos.
05-11-2020, 01:46 PM
#156
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Posts: 1,331
Originally Posted by kingairfun
During the recession there was a video conferencing push also. Didn't work out so well in the end. Businesses returned to travel. Same will happen with this. The deterrent being travel budgets for the time being.
Having done zoom and other platforms. They are mediocre at best. Choppy, video's cut out, speaking/sound is delayed and annoying. That's not to mention the security factor.
Having done zoom and other platforms. They are mediocre at best. Choppy, video's cut out, speaking/sound is delayed and annoying. That's not to mention the security factor.
boldpilot does have a point, though. Unless things start to open, there’s nothing to do.
05-11-2020, 01:48 PM
#157
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Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,023
Originally Posted by BoldPilot
Until I see sports stadiums open again, Disney world open, convention centers, concerts going, museums open, and people not afraid to go on cruises then I’ll be more hopeful. Other than that, I don’t know what’s going to cause people flocking back to the airport to fly again. Let alone all the businesses that now see that company travel isn’t so essential in running their operations and working from home is more cost effective. Just my 2 cents. I am a glass half full guy just in case you’re wondering.
I agree with your point, here are a couple promising data points:
Carnival Cruises:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox6now...pany-says/amp/
Disney:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.lau...reopening/amp/
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05-11-2020, 02:10 PM
#158
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,287
Originally Posted by Eagle06
Airlines don’t staff for the low points of the year (like October). The question is what’s the demand forecast for the holidays and summer 21? Those are the numbers that will drive furloughs. Not how we look Oct 1st.
05-11-2020, 03:08 PM
#159
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Posts: 417
Originally Posted by LoneStar32
I hope you are right, because air traffic is not going to be anywhere close to normal or "OK" (whatever that means) come 1 Oct.
Multiple unknowns exist, of course. The positive effects of multiple states opening up between now and then, theme parks and cruise lines opening, aren't accounted for. Likewise, the negative impact of a potential "second wave" or cumbersome airport screening procedures aren't accounted for either.
So again, if you data supporting the notion that traffic levels won't be anywhere near normal by Oct 1 (and the TSA screening count surely isn't it at this point in time), I'm legit interested in seeing it.
05-11-2020, 04:34 PM
#160
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 1,287
Originally Posted by bradthepilot
If you have supporting data, I'd legit be interested in seeing it. Any number of mathematical and statistical runs I've put against the TSA screening data show a full recovery by mid next year, barring any outside influences. With what is open vs. not currently, all three analysis (linear regression, three parameter curve fit, and growth rate) I've done so far have resulted in screening numbers > 1m by October 1st.
Multiple unknowns exist, of course. The positive effects of multiple states opening up between now and then, theme parks and cruise lines opening, aren't accounted for. Likewise, the negative impact of a potential "second wave" or cumbersome airport screening procedures aren't accounted for either.
So again, if you data supporting the notion that traffic levels won't be anywhere near normal by Oct 1 (and the TSA screening count surely isn't it at this point in time), I'm legit interested in seeing it.
Multiple unknowns exist, of course. The positive effects of multiple states opening up between now and then, theme parks and cruise lines opening, aren't accounted for. Likewise, the negative impact of a potential "second wave" or cumbersome airport screening procedures aren't accounted for either.
So again, if you data supporting the notion that traffic levels won't be anywhere near normal by Oct 1 (and the TSA screening count surely isn't it at this point in time), I'm legit interested in seeing it.
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