TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
05-11-2020, 05:09 PM
#161
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Joined APC: Dec 2017
Posts: 218
Originally Posted by bradthepilot
If you have supporting data, I'd legit be interested in seeing it. Any number of mathematical and statistical runs I've put against the TSA screening data show a full recovery by mid next year, barring any outside influences. With what is open vs. not currently, all three analysis (linear regression, three parameter curve fit, and growth rate) I've done so far have resulted in screening numbers > 1m by October 1st.
Multiple unknowns exist, of course. The positive effects of multiple states opening up between now and then, theme parks and cruise lines opening, aren't accounted for. Likewise, the negative impact of a potential "second wave" or cumbersome airport screening procedures aren't accounted for either.
So again, if you data supporting the notion that traffic levels won't be anywhere near normal by Oct 1 (and the TSA screening count surely isn't it at this point in time), I'm legit interested in seeing it.
Multiple unknowns exist, of course. The positive effects of multiple states opening up between now and then, theme parks and cruise lines opening, aren't accounted for. Likewise, the negative impact of a potential "second wave" or cumbersome airport screening procedures aren't accounted for either.
So again, if you data supporting the notion that traffic levels won't be anywhere near normal by Oct 1 (and the TSA screening count surely isn't it at this point in time), I'm legit interested in seeing it.
05-11-2020, 05:25 PM
#162
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Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 987
Originally Posted by ELAC321
Wow! You should call up the experts every US airline and Boeing is using and let them know that they are all wrong. Time to start hiring again!!
05-11-2020, 05:50 PM
#163
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Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
Originally Posted by ELAC321
Wow! You should call up the experts every US airline and Boeing is using and let them know that they are all wrong. Time to start hiring again!!
05-11-2020, 09:08 PM
#164
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
Originally Posted by ELAC321
Wow! You should call up the experts every US airline and Boeing is using and let them know that they are all wrong. Time to start hiring again!!
05-12-2020, 03:01 AM
#165
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Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 588
Originally Posted by ELAC321
Wow! You should call up the experts every US airline and Boeing is using and let them know that they are all wrong. Time to start hiring again!!
I’m nor saying CV isn’t real, but we accept a certain amount of risk everyday of our lives. At some point hiding from the risk causes more harm than managing life with it.
05-12-2020, 04:04 AM
#166
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Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 588
We beat Friday’s number. 215,645
05-12-2020, 04:21 AM
#167
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 514
Originally Posted by Skyward
We beat Friday’s number. 215,645
05-12-2020, 04:38 AM
#168
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,571
Remember, the recovery of international flying truly is beyond our control. I’m not actually sure what percentage of the TSA numbers were driven by international flying before coronavirus (perhaps someone with a degree in flying could help me with that 
) but those numbers will likely be slower to return.
) but those numbers will likely be slower to return.
05-12-2020, 04:50 AM
#169
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Posts: 588
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Remember, the recovery of international flying truly is beyond our control. I’m not actually sure what percentage of the TSA numbers were driven by international flying before coronavirus (perhaps someone with a degree in flying could help me with that ) but those numbers will likely be slower to return.
) but those numbers will likely be slower to return.
05-12-2020, 04:53 AM
#170
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Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,023
Originally Posted by Skyward
I agree. It would be helpful to know what percent of the TSA numbers are domestic/International. The domestic TSA % number has to be higher relative to the total TSA % number.
https://awt.cbp.gov
I'm sure someone smarter than me can take this data, extrapolate it out, and answer that question.
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