Purpleanga

This isn’t a fluke, it’s for real. Refreshing daily TSA numbers isn’t going to make the recovery go any faster. It’s going to take a long long time before people fly again anywhere close to sustainable numbers. Get out and enjoy your life.

fasteddie800

This.

Brad posts up some objective data (including charts to help visualize the data).
Comments and questions about the data are helpful. Other than that, it's painful to weed through all the subjective whining that's going on.

rickair7777

I think there are too many variables in this mess, several of which are unknown and unknowable, to accurately extrapolate, predict, or model traffic growth in the near/mid term.

There will be some growth obviously, as urgent travel happens, and also some percentage of fearless rebels who are just sick of it all. But for the population as a whole, too complex of a problem.

Assuming a vaccine, you could probably use economic modeling to predict traffic in 2021 or more likely 2022. CEOs of large aviation companies who are talking about future traffic are probably informed by that kind of modeling, although they may have been legally advised to assume no vaccine (to avoid being accused of misleading investors).

GucciBoy

Do we have to wait until October?

lifetakesflight

If I make it a shared Google Doc then everyone can see the owner (me) and I didn't just want to make some throwaway account, so this was a good compromise. If you want to recreate it for yourself, feel free to just copy pasta it into your own spreadsheets, the formulas are quite simple. If you have any suggestions on graphs, then just lmk! Googe Sheets is pretty basic, so I'm not sure if you can overlay data like you can traditionally on Excel.

Also, I agree with enjoying your life and health! This takes me only about 10 seconds a day to update and it brings me multiple amounts more happiness to see good news and share ~

NewGuy01

Apologies if this has been asked before but at the present rate of change where will we be at October 1?

Slowhawk

ah there’s the guy no one likes to fly with

lifetakesflight

- I'm not a statistician and it's unfortunately an exercise in futility to attempt to forecast what potential growth rate gains and losses could occur in the future. If we could accurately predict, there'd be many more wealthy day traders out there, and I'd also like your phone number. There's just FAR too many variables and factors that can/will affect the future (politics, virus, consumer sentiment, posters on APC, aliens, etc.)

I'm not well learned in applying logarithmic, polynomial, or advanced variable growth trends to a set of data... heck, I'm not even too certain if I just made up those words. Also, I believe that the set that we have right now is woefully small and not indicative of what it would look like months from now. Take for example if we copy pasted recent growth numbers until October, we'd get "% of LY 7DA":

Daily Change: 510%
Weekly Change: 245%
Monthly Change: 105%

I was very fast and loose with the math for anyone checking, but I think we'd all agree there's no way there will be 5 times the number of passengers flying in October.

While replying to this, I did add a graph showing daily change of % LY 7DA since I thought it looked kind of interesting, but I hesitate to clutter things up too much. It dilutes the metric that I've been following which is not a "predictor" of future trends, but a good "indicator" of current trends. Anymore and it becomes pseudo-numbers nonsense and we'll start seeing the number "23" everywhere. Sorry if it's not the response you wanted, but hopefully it's useful!

NewGuy01

No worries bud. If anything it is yet another example of the fact there is no clarity. So no way to call if I’ll be furloughed or not. May as well enjoy life and carry on.

I’m not employed at this shop but another major airline.


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lifetakesflight

Hopefully, we'll look back in a few months or some random time frame in the future from the cockpit laughing about the days we spent staring at numbers and charts!