rickair7777

Yes. Generally in about this order:

Fri/Mon/Sun/Wed/Thus/Sat/Tue

ZapBrannigan

I don't believe we need to see the delta between 2019 numbers and today. We already know that we will be disturbingly far below 2019. What we need to know is how far below approximate break-even load factors we are. 2019 was a record breaking year. We don't need to break records. We need to survive.

flyinthrew

Broke a half mil. That’s pretty cool, right?

HoldenRavi

That is very cool

flypilot

WOOOOHOOOO!!!!

We broke 500,000! To me that's just a massive mental milestone! And way earlier than I (and others on this thread) predicted. Yes, we are seeing a "spike" in cases, but imo, that's to be expected with more testing and states beginning to open. As long as hospitals can handle the increase, I think things will continue to improve at current rates.

In my analysis, the next big step will be 600,000 which will mean we're at approximately 25% of previous years numbers, which would put us half way to 50% which is what I believe will keep the furloughs from happening (as long as 50% is reached before the end of September), which think is totally possible.

bradthepilot

575,000 is where I’m calling the Boeing CEO out as being officially wrong on his prediction from a few weeks ago where he stated that we wouldn’t see even 25% by September.

50% by September is certainly possible, but I don’t agree that has any direct impact on furloughs. Several regionals have already furloughed, and more have been announced just in the last few days. There could very well be more before September and certainly in the days that follow.

flypilot

I think those that have furloughed are going to be re-thinking why they did that (at least if they took $$$ from the gov't). All of the airlines are seeing increases in bookings obviously, and they're adjusting their schedules as such. The industry CAN'T flip a switch and resume normal operations at the same level as last year for 2 reasons... (1) They've pretty much all accepted that the public and health officials don't want the planes over 70% capacity for the foreseeable future, so they aren't filling them more than 70%, and (2) Airlines have initiated early retirements for fleets and personnel, so even if they wanted to fly the same as last year they can't because they don't have the equipment or crew.

If we say 70% TSA throughput compared to last years number is our goal (to stop furloughs from happening), that would be great because it would put every aircraft and every crew member back to their normal schedule... But we don't have as many aircraft and we don't have as many crew members as we had before (#2 above). If we say 60% TSA throughput compared to last years number is our goal that would be more realistic to achieve and have everyone back close to (but likely not at) their pre-Covid flight hours (and no furlough). But realistically no airline wants to have "just enough" to get by, they want to be able to spin up more flights and make more money/profit as things continue to improve, even if it means paying crew just under their minimum monthly guarantees to keep them on staff (and not furloughed), that's the logic behind my 50% will save massive furloughs thought.

ComanchePilot

Which airlines have furloughed?

I believe all the airlines took bailout money from the CARES Act, and one of the conditions of accepting that money is that they would not lay off or furlough any workers before October 1. (They have been offering time off without pay and temporary leaves of absence in the meantime.)

Certainly every airline will have to furlough a portion of its pilots in October or November. The question is just how many. Each airline will send a different % of its pilots, based on its best estimate of how many trained pilots they will need about a year later, and how many of their older pilots accept offers of early retirement. Certainly several thousand pilots will be furloughed at that time.

4V14T0R

I think ExpressJet and Republic have.


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bradthepilot

Furlough is the wrong word; I was thinking of TSA and Compass but that’s a different thing.

Air Wisconsin announced their intent to furlough a day or two ago, and displacement bids at other shops are certainly foreshadowing the others following suit.