senecacaptain

from what I can tell....

April 16: count was 3.63% of its corresponding 2019 day. (or down 96.37%) This was the lowest it has ever been in the "COVID slow down"

June 14, then June 18: counts broke 20% of its corresponding 2019 days.

July 2, July 3: counts broke 30% for the first time. July 2: 36.6%, July 3: 32.9%. July 4 weekend, very busy travel time per AAA, etc. sources.

July 4: 19.9% (call it "20" for positive energy)

July 5: 26%

Goal: Don't drop below 20%, ever again. 25% is better goal. Harder to attain, but hopefully reachable=Try to re-claim 30-35% yard line.

Return to 100% obviously is ultimate goal. Not reachable (yet) with re-surge of COVID, Karen, etc. right now. Maybe we get closer to this in the fall.

Small goals, not impossible ones. Lets not look at "we are XXX below 100%". Instead lets hope for 30%-35% ish as short term goal.

International Travel, via JFK Traffic is meekly coming back: https://www.radarbox.com/statistics/airports/KJFK

If we drop below 20% of 2019 levels, for weeks, then not sure what to say boys.

sumwherelse

I think we’re a million plus by Labor Day for sure. Close to 1.5 million. Which I see as the cap with the draw down of international. 1.5 million and were running 85% + load factors across the board.

BoilerUP

755,555 on Monday 6 July; four of last seven days have been above 700k.

pangolin

A million - yes. 1.5 mil? No way. Rate of increase year over year is steady, but slow.

senecacaptain

Not sure about that. We are in "mid-summer now" and summer leisure travel will be winding down in mid August. Most school around the country is mid to late August. Call it "August 25" for discussion purposes.

I believe Business travel's greatest numbers occur in Sept thru November, as companies seek to wrap up end of year goals and hit targets. Labor Day is on Sept 7, so not sure if we are close to 1.5M by Labor Day. fingers crossed

Excargodog

Yeah, except most of the big summer theme parks, cruise lines, etc., have yet to reopen, and there is no certainty whatever that a lot of schools are going to reopen in a traditional sense at all. Even some colleges are planning on going to online for all their larger (freshman and sophomore) classes. So summer vacation may just be extended into much later in the Fall.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...o-fall-opening

and notwithstanding the opinions of some people, I’m not sure business flying is going to rebound at all in the post-zoom environment, certainly not to 2019 levels. And if it does happen I don’t think it will happen soon.

We have reached the point where it is difficult to predict any behavior of the population based upon historical data and that may persist for a few years until we discover what the new post-COVID (or living with COVID) normal really is.

sumwherelse

We have capped travel so far this summer. It’s about to be uncapped and the parks are about to open. I think we see big jumps and I think 1.5 million is achievable.

senecacaptain

good points

mrfishy

I think this pandemic has shown companies how important business travel actually is with how ineffective Zoom is as a replacement for in-person meetings. You can’t make sales over zoom. No relationships are made with your internal laptop mic and camera. A number of companies have quietly resumed business travel, but obviously not all of them.

totally agree, with the mouse opening in Florida next week you can already see an increase in loads to MCO.

Anyone who thinks demand is going to decrease at the end of summer should be buying airline puts right now, put your money where your mouth is. It’s pretty clear we were flying at capacity in June since passenger numbers have shot up by 100k daily since the start of July. There is zero evidence to support that demand will decrease. This “second wave” has had no negative effect on air travel demand at all.

RiddleEagle18

Edit. Bad info.