rickair7777

Here's a summary of interviews with various vaccine/pharma experts, an across-the-board sampling of their insight...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24N30G

Excargodog

And then there are the logistics issues... among others...

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-va...d7e7657db.html

Downtime

I mean yeah there are issues but at this point without a vaccine we are going to be stuck in the new normal.

Excargodog

Why do you say that? Honest question. Even the Spanish Flu, the most severe pandemic for which we have good records, burned itself out in two years.

https://www.history.com/topics/world...8-flu-pandemic

and though efforts were made to develop a vaccine for influenza, even the most primitive (and not very effective) influenza vaccine didn’t get developed until 1933. Now I’m not saying that you are wrong, just saying that we don’t know, and that for the last six months a lot of people have been making a lot of assumptions that we simply don’t have the data to back up.

But even if there were a great single shot 100% effective vaccine possible (and that’s not likely) and available today (and that isn’t the case either) many people seem to be underestimating the logistic problems associated with a mass immunization program.


Then there is the cultural problem. Outside of active duty military personnel damn few people get All the immunizations they are supposed to be getting right now:



https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-man...NHIS-2016.html

Downtime

I say that mainly because that seems to be the liability remover that most businesses and local governments are demanding.

Excargodog

Except it doesn’t remove any liability. Only a change in the liability laws would do that. And local governments pretty much have either(Local) government or (state) sovereign immunity anyway.

https://www.mwl-law.com/wp-content/u...T-00212510.pdf

But yeah, I can sue Disney for things that happen at Disney World, and a vaccine won’t in any way change that. I can sue them if I get tetanus because of horse droppings on Main Street USA even though if I’d had a tetanus shot in the last ten years it wouldn’t even have happened.

rickair7777

J&J tested seven vaccine candidates in monkeys, and is taking the best performer to human trails. This one looks promising for single-dose efficacy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24V1EO

Excargodog

From your reference.

From planning a phase 1 trial to actually producing a working vaccine generally takes a long time.

https://www.ifpma.org/wp-content/upl...2019_FINAL.pdf

For something like Ebola, which has a case-fatality rate north of 35% for anyone infected, that was rushed down to only about four years. But the case-fatality rate for those under 45 is less than 0.4% quite possibly much less than 0.4%. And there are issues with trying to speed up the process. Just saying.

I’m not anti vaccine, I think a good, safe, efficacious vaccine would be a good thing. I think all of you out there who don’t know when you had your last TdAP ought to run out and get one and same thing if you aren’t current on flu. I like good well proven vaccines.

It’s just that planning a phase 1 trial has never been an indication that a successful vaccine was imminent - not ever. Far more phase 1 trials go on to abject failure than ever become an efficacious treatment, that’s just the track record. I don’t know that I would even buy stock in J&J based upon their planning a phase 1 trial, far less put my hopes in them.

Mesabah

I fixed your post to be more accurate.

rickair7777

I didn't say any of that. This is the vaccine development thread. This is a development.