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Old 09-29-2020, 05:21 AM
  #781  
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyDelta View Post
Sept 28

797,699 vs 2,368,818 last year.

33.68%

Continued solid WoW growth.
very solid WoW gains continuing.

% YoY Sept 14: 30.3
% YoY Sept 21: 31.7
% YoY Sept 28: 33.7

2.0% gain wow and over 3.3% in two weeks. It is safe to say our growth rate is accelerating in Sept vs the slower to nearly flat growth rate in Aug.
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Old 09-29-2020, 05:50 AM
  #782  
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I welcome any and all growth, but until we see 35% exceeded consistently, weekdays and weekends both, daily, say for 2+ weeks, will I personally start to be celebrating the recovery.

note we do not know if these are full fare tickets or $29 super saver specials.

the uptick is good indeed....lets keep our fingers crossed...
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Old 09-29-2020, 07:13 AM
  #783  
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain View Post
I welcome any and all growth, but until we see 35% exceeded consistently, weekdays and weekends both, daily, say for 2+ weeks, will I personally start to be celebrating the recovery.

note we do not know if these are full fare tickets or $29 super saver specials.

the uptick is good indeed....lets keep our fingers crossed...
It is clear right now that travel is not dropping off a cliff like many of us thought. That is a good reason to be optimistic in itself. I don’t personally have high expectations of big gains week over week, but I think we will finally break 1m daily passengers in the next 4-8 weeks realistically. Basic back of the napkin math puts us on track for around 60-70% next summer, and that is at the current rate. I think the rate will fluctuate a bit but overall I see an acceleration after a vaccine is announced. It’s a long ways off but I now believe it will be better than we expect, barring another large scale shut down (I don’t see this happening anyway with all we’ve learned now regardless who is in office). But what do I know, I’m no expert.
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Old 09-29-2020, 07:20 AM
  #784  
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain View Post
bottom line is we are stuck in the 25-30% level. It is what it is. We are also coming out of the weekend and a Monday.

the same thing that nudges the moving average up will nudge it back down once we see Tuesday-Wed-Thur data come in

August 25-ish school will start or be close to starting virtually or physically in most parts of country. Maybe the "last weekend of summer" we pierce the 30% level
Originally Posted by senecacaptain View Post
summer is over

Originally Posted by senecacaptain View Post
I welcome any and all growth, but until we see 35% exceeded consistently, weekdays and weekends both, daily, say for 2+ weeks, will I personally start to be celebrating the recovery.

note we do not know if these are full fare tickets or $29 super saver specials.

the uptick is good indeed....lets keep our fingers crossed...

The first and third comment above are two months apart.

The 7-day rolling-average on the date of the first comment was 25.5%, and today it is 32%.

Both our 7-day rolling-average % and our 7-day rolling-average number of passengers are higher today than they were at any time in August, or July, or June or since the start of the lockdowns.

This is even with September historically being one of the weakest months in terms of total number of passengers.

I understand being realistic, but there is no reason to diminish progress even if it is incremental.

Is air travel returning returning as quickly as we would all like? No
Is air travel returning returning? Yes

We need to see the forest for the trees.
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Old 09-29-2020, 07:32 AM
  #785  
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Originally Posted by AirlineAnalyst View Post
Is air travel returning returning as quickly as we would all like? No
Is air travel returning returning? Yes

We need to see the forest for the trees.
We knew it would return.

Our jobs depend on the "when"

Both the forest and the trees are plain as day.
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Old 09-29-2020, 08:02 AM
  #786  
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Curious how bad the CDC recommending people stay home for Thanksgiving is going to impact holiday travel. We all know they are going to recommend a Zoom Christmas too. If the holiday demand is poor,things are going to go from bad to much worse


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Old 09-29-2020, 08:22 AM
  #787  
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Originally Posted by Av8rPHX View Post
Curious how bad the CDC recommending people stay home for Thanksgiving is going to impact holiday travel. We all know they are going to recommend a Zoom Christmas too. If the holiday demand is poor,things are going to go from bad to much worse


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I don’t watch the news anymore. I am not alone in that either. First I’ve heard of this, but I don’t think it changes much.

People are getting tired of this BS. Remember how everything was supposed to fall off a cliff after Labor Day? Yeah...
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Old 09-29-2020, 08:25 AM
  #788  
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Originally Posted by CAirBear View Post
I don’t watch the news anymore. I am not alone in that either. First I’ve heard of this, but I don’t think it changes much.



People are getting tired of this BS. Remember how everything was supposed to fall off a cliff after Labor Day? Yeah...


I concur,however there is still a large segment of the populace who think this is an automatic death sentence.


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Old 09-30-2020, 04:33 AM
  #789  
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Tues Sept 29th

568,688 or 28.5%

More solid WoW growth.
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Old 09-30-2020, 04:47 AM
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyDelta View Post
Tues Sept 29th

568,688 or 28.5%

More solid WoW growth.
a 1.5% gain wow on yoy%, is a very strong gain for a Tuesday. Up 2.5% over the past two weeks comparing the last 3 Tuesdays.

Sept blew away my expectations and I am happy to have been wrong.
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