pangolin

I disagree. There’s going to be third vaccine option soon. Manufacturing is the bottleneck but with 3 options it’s going to get going faster. I can’t wait for the opportunity to get the vaccine. Let’s go!

In addition there’s herd immunity from the natural progression of the disease.

Tom Bradys Cat

The idea that summer is unsavable is conjecture at best. If the vaccine numbers were crunched AND the traveling public was to act rationally, in a correlated manner and predictably to the distrubution (of the vaccine curve) then yeah its probably coreect. But that isnt the case......


- As of yesterday 41% of last years passangers have shown they will travel regardless of a vaccine or the Covid situation.
- Goldman Sachs believed 26% of the USA is already carrying antibodies....thia shows that the collective isnt operating off a common picture.
- Governments are changing the rules daily (for good or bad)...so things may open up more....at the drop of the hat.


The list goes on.....point is there is lotsa uncertainty and its probable that the majority of travelers just grow weary of the BS and travel anyway.

I think coming into summer 2021 there will be a spike in demand for travel that will outstrip supply, this is due to pent up demand. But then tide will receed and we will be back around the 80 to 95% of 2019 mark by about Xmas 2021.... This will be the new steady state from which the slow gwoth will come.

Leaving the thinking hat on. With the lower fares we will likely see strong growth in the ULCC and LCC market. Demand in dollar terms will be slightly down across the market however the net effect for us pilots will likely be an increase in passangers flow as flying becomes cheaper per passanger flown.

Hedley

I don’t know what to believe anymore. We originally thought that this would be over by now. The recovery will also be different depending on your employer. Spirit will be different than United, and the regionals will vary depending on which mule they’re tied to.

Tom Bradys Cat

yeah totally agree. There have been a number of notable articles come put over this whole saga that Ive avoided looking sideways at. Completely made up and hypothetical based on no data and limited analysis.

- "business travel will never return"
- "Aviation is dead for ever"
- "Social distaning on planes with plexiglass is the new normal".

The list of clickbait articles is endless.... So when another hack comes out and says "summer is unsavable". I think to myself..."cool story".

There has been limited analysis on our industry because we just dont know. So to say its unsaveable is not wrong....but is a guess.

RustyChain

Just over a million people have received the vaccine. Goal for Dec was 20 million. Lets hope they can pick things up. I believe it was something like 9 million doses shipped. As of now manufacturing is definitely not the bottle neck

Excargodog

Manufacturing and certification are bottlenecks, but if you look at mass immunization programs in the past they are rarely the limiting factor. The long slog is generally administration. And that was even before the current growth of the anti-vaxxers. And if you believe what Fauci is NOW spouting, about requiring as many as 90% of people to be vaccinated for herd immunity, I honestly don’t think we can get there from here. Fortunately, I don’t believe that, although in certain conditions (Prisons and very high population dense urban areas) he may be right.


That I would agree with, although with the four other common human coronaviruses, the ones that just cause colds, the immunity from reinfection only appears to last about 9 months. What we don’t know - either with COVID induced or vaccine induced immunity - is how long the immunity from reinfection will last or how much less (or more) severe the reinfection will be if you do have one. Neither COVID itself nor the COVID vaccines have been around long enough to know that.


By the way, early scientific studies blaming pangolins in general (not you in particular) were probably erroneous:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...to-humans.aspx

So have a Merry Christmas

Speed Select

Any thoughts on when airlines will start brewing coffee again?

Did a transcon a little ways back and the kindest caterers hooked us up with some AA (that’s not us) coffee before they left. The back end crew was able to brew us a crew pot for the ride home and it was nothing short of majestic.

AntiPeter

I will argue that the problem is the government and regardless of the progression of the virus, until the government(s) are forced to retreat the response will continue indefinitely.

Speed Select

Wierd. I wrote the question, but not the second paragraph. Yet, it appears that I wrote both paragraphs. That’s what I get for commenting on China’s rise, I guess. Going to check my bank accounts now...

C17B74

Good Point, although I have no right to complain as we make our own coffee - seeking out the StarBucks packs like hounds and avoiding the Made by Big Red Coffee bags only to hang them in the Lav for good use. Now my accounts may be in jeopardy.