Excargodog

Agreed, and there is a very real chance that will continue for several years, assuming it ever returns to the original “normal” at all, and even that might be ‘iffy’.

senecacaptain

I tend to agree with this. The non-aviation industry folks in my orbit, both civilian and DOD, are not conducting business travel.

Soxfan1

Another 1.5% gain wow on yoy%.

AirlineAnalyst

Part 2/X

Forecasting 1 Million Passengers

Forecasting the day that we will hit 1 million passengers for the first time is more difficult.

This is because the standard +/- for number of days is not the appropriate metric.
Specific days further in the future would have less chance of achieving 1 million passengers than days closer in time.

For example, we know that it is highly unlikely that the first day we will hit 1 million passengers will be a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Saturday.

November 10th (a Tuesday) would have only a 17.63% of achieving 1 million passengers. Meanwhile, October 11th (a Sunday) would have a 44.08% of hitting 1 million passengers despite the fact that it is one full month earlier.

See chart below.

The first time we cross the 50% threshold of achieving 1 million passengers is October 25th. Stated in other words, that will be the first day that it is more likely than not that we will achieve 1 million passengers.



Each Sunday and Tuesday have attached data labels. You should be able to use the data to deduce the approximate percentage on each day that is not explicitly marked with a data label.


Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst

Soxfan1

Saturday the 3rd:

677K
35.3% YoY
1.8% gain wow on yoy

We now have both Sundays and Saturdays above 35%. On this Tuesday could see us have all days above 30%.

And could possibly have multiple more days join the 35% club.

senecacaptain

now we are talking !

Bottlen0se

I’ll admit I was pessimistic about the return to flying but clearly there is, and this is without a vaccine or an end in sight to covid. I am starting to think summer of next year may exceed a lot of peoples expectations.

Duffman

I completely agree about next summer. For now though, I've got a feeling that with kids returning to school there's a false sense of security, there'll be a major spike in the next month or so, followed by a commensurate drop, so don't get discouraged if there's a drop this winter. I think this proves people want to fly and they'll come back quickly, but they scare off when the virus spikes. It seems to be an annoying sinusoidal trend with a 2-3 month cycle.

WhiskeyDelta

My local schools have been back for almost 2 months. Absolutely no “major” spike. It has been so quiet that the city school system required all kids to go back in person last week unless they have a major medical reason to remain distant learning.

Bottlen0se

I’m expecting an increase in cases which is what we are seeing now but I think a growing number of people, like myself aren’t as phased by it. Life has to go on, even if covid never fully goes away.