This is the kind of BS that millions have already been ignoring and making their own decisions.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fly-fly-fly-cdc-says-194358377.html

Of course warnings affect outcomes. Aren't you the one whining that we didn't follow the warnings though? Isn't that your whole schtick? Nice redirect though. My expectations are that when an expert says we need to shut down and destroy whole industries (travel, tourism, hospitality, food service, fitness), says we need to destroy the mental health, education and psyche of an entire generation of children, and when that expert says we need to destroy our economy and take on what, 6 Trillion plus dollars worth of COVID debt (for a country that makes max 3 trillion a year in revenue - and it turns out that is all for a virus that overwhelmingly kills the infirm (over 40% of the deaths are in long term care facilities) and the old (almost 60% of the deaths are in people over the age of 75) my expectation is that is an important prediction, and he better be pretty sure he is going to be correct. No, this isn't a weather report.

I don't get this - you continue to preach that it isn't about the individual (me) and it is about the collective good, all the while arguing how important it is to destroy the economy and our society (the collective good) to save that one additional individual that might die.

Again, I like the smug. After all, "the fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt"

No problem. The weatherman analogy does fit pretty well. But what if a weatherman could change the outcome by simply reporting the weather? Let's see.

"Forecast for Tuesday.. Looks like everyone is going to get soaked! 90% chance of rain showers all day. Be sure to pack umbrellas and ponchos when you head to the park!"

Tuesday rain happens. No one gets wet because they were prepared.

APC Angry Mob: "HE'S A LIAR! HE SAID WE WOULD ALL GET SOAKED!"

You see how dumb you all sound? Warnings affect outcomes.

Warnings may OR MAY NOT affect outcomes. With UNIVERSAL warnings it is an ‘n’ of one event with zero degrees of freedom.

Statistically, that can’t be assessed one way or another.

In advertising, people are always looking for ways to quantify Return on Investment. There's no direct way to say x billboard led to y purchase.

After all the surveys and extrapolation, you just have to go on faith that it works.

Don't try to squirm your way out with semantics.

See how dumb the weather man sounds? I can look outside myself and see the weather is bad. I don't need him. If my neighbors were dropping dead, I'd notice.

Good point. But this is where the analogy breaks down.

If you're rained on, you'll notice right away. With COVID, it takes 5 - 14 days. And by then it's too late.

My point is that COVID spread is not an act of nature. It's spread by humans. Our behavior dictates how aggressive it is. Therefore, if a warning about an impending outbreak changes behavior, the outbreak will never occur.

That has a tendency to confuse the dim-witted and they will attack the one warning them.

Perfect reasoned post until you couldn’t help yourself by adding a condescension!

Says the guy telling me ‘you just have to go on faith that it works”?

Sorry, you have now demonstrated sufficient lack of insight that you will now join knobcrk1 and two others on my ignore list. It’s a small but distinguished group - distinguished by having shown themselves not worth communicating with.

Have a good life.

No response required, I won’t see it anyway.

A virus spreading is not an act of nature? Wow. You are dumb, private Pyle.