Notices

Side Hustle

Old 12-14-2020, 08:29 PM
  #301  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Trip7's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,392
Default

Originally Posted by TegridyFarms View Post
Food for thought: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/07/warr...ion-today.html



This guy can’t beat the S&P. He’s the GOAT of investing.



Jim Cramer who is a prophet to some, and a fraud to others, he can’t beat the S&P.



Investing in the S&P is investing in America. Is it 100% of my portfolio? No. It’s 100% of my 401k though. Outside of that I have had some incredible luck since the market crash of 2008. You guys can compare percentages and strategies all day, bottom line is S&P with DRIP (dividend reinvestment program) is tough to beat over time.



Interesting side note is that the S&P is basically turning into a tech fund now. Will be interesting to see what happens over time... but I wouldn’t bet against American companies.
Over the past decade Buffett has lagged the S&P 500 but over his career he's handily outperformed the S&P 500 with 17%+ compounded annual returns. The more assets you have under management the harder it becomes to outperform the SPY

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
Trip7 is offline  
Old 12-14-2020, 11:57 PM
  #302  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 760
Default

Originally Posted by TegridyFarms View Post
Food for thought: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/07/warr...ion-today.html

This guy can’t beat the S&P. He’s the GOAT of investing.

Jim Cramer who is a prophet to some, and a fraud to others, he can’t beat the S&P.

Investing in the S&P is investing in America. Is it 100% of my portfolio? No. It’s 100% of my 401k though. Outside of that I have had some incredible luck since the market crash of 2008. You guys can compare percentages and strategies all day, bottom line is S&P with DRIP (dividend reinvestment program) is tough to beat over time.

Interesting side note is that the S&P is basically turning into a tech fund now. Will be interesting to see what happens over time... but I wouldn’t bet against American companies.
By no means am I here to pursued you to deviate from what makes you comfortable. But I’m living proof that the s&p can be out performed.

It is ESSENTIAL I compare percentages until I’m blue in the face because you must keep score. If anyone uses an advisor, I challenge you to demand their annualized rate of return versus the S&P 500. 99% chance they don’t track it and will reply with some nonsense as to why.

The traditional wisdom you mention is accurate regarding outperformance of the S&P but I ask you, compared to what? John Smith, individual investor? Or Mega Fund actively invested fund? The traditional wisdom is often comparing the S&P to the ladder. Actively managed funds charge a higher fee and therefore people demand ACTION for that fee. The ACTION the funds take is what kills their performance. My point is that you can concentrate your portfolio and do NOTHING and outperform the S&P by holding great companies, many of whom are listed on the S&P.

The argument is that the law of averages will return my peformanxe to that of the S&P, but this is why Its essential that track performance. If it ain’t working join the crowd and index, but given a 12 year collection of data I’m beginning to see the reality of out sized performance. It’s astounding what outperforming by 5-10% annualized does to a portfolio when you run hypotheticals on a calculator.

Just consider who is telling you that indexing is the only way (institutions, media) and if it’s an advisor demand their performance versus the S&P. And whatever you do, accept no less than the average, it can cost you millions in the long run!
mispoken is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 12:01 AM
  #303  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 760
Default

Originally Posted by TED74 View Post
Problem is... that doesn't sell systems, or software, or memberships, or subscriptions or clicks or books. Sure, you can make great money without thinking or regularly tracking the market, but where's the fun in that?

I have always been perplexed by the stock-picking sections of personal investing magazines that went to print weeks or months before I'm reading them. Having read the diversification advice in the preceding articles of that same magazine, I'm certainly not going pick individual stocks with any significant portion of my savings and if I were, it wouldn't be based on advice in an old school magazine.

To each their own, I guess.
Yes, those are absolute garbage! The problem is, everyone is always looking for the next Amazon at $1 when the best bet is just investing in Amazon. But people price anchor and say “I missed that one, too late”. I’m no exception to this but buying excellence and continuing to do so is where the real money is made!
mispoken is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 03:35 AM
  #304  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Trip7's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,392
Default

Originally Posted by mispoken View Post
By no means am I here to pursued you to deviate from what makes you comfortable. But I’m living proof that the s&p can be out performed.



It is ESSENTIAL I compare percentages until I’m blue in the face because you must keep score. If anyone uses an advisor, I challenge you to demand their annualized rate of return versus the S&P 500. 99% chance they don’t track it and will reply with some nonsense as to why.



The traditional wisdom you mention is accurate regarding outperformance of the S&P but I ask you, compared to what? John Smith, individual investor? Or Mega Fund actively invested fund? The traditional wisdom is often comparing the S&P to the ladder. Actively managed funds charge a higher fee and therefore people demand ACTION for that fee. The ACTION the funds take is what kills their performance. My point is that you can concentrate your portfolio and do NOTHING and outperform the S&P by holding great companies, many of whom are listed on the S&P.



The argument is that the law of averages will return my peformanxe to that of the S&P, but this is why Its essential that track performance. If it ain’t working join the crowd and index, but given a 12 year collection of data I’m beginning to see the reality of out sized performance. It’s astounding what outperforming by 5-10% annualized does to a portfolio when you run hypotheticals on a calculator.



Just consider who is telling you that indexing is the only way (institutions, media) and if it’s an advisor demand their performance versus the S&P. And whatever you do, accept no less than the average, it can cost you millions in the long run!
Well said. For the portfolio/mutual fund/hedge fund manager managing hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars its difficult to outperform the SPY. However for the individual investor managing small funds it is significantly easier granted they have dedicated time learning different strategies and have picked one that fits their personality and temperament.

This is probably diving alittle deeper into the weeds than necessary but I think it needs to be discussed due to the focus by Index investors on the SPY as "the market". The SPY is only 1 of several "markets" that technically are called asset classes. Many use the SPY as a proxy for US Domestic equities Asset Class in a diversified portfolio including a strategic mix of other asset classes like Foreign Developed index, Emerging market index, US REITs(Real Estate) Index, Foreign REITs, Bond Index, and Commodities.

The goal of maintaining a diversified portfolio is its difficult to determine with consistency which of these markets will outperform as every 10 years or so there is a completely new performance leader. There are periods of over 10 years where REITs, Gold, Emerging markets, you name it has destroyed the SPY. While the SPY has had a spectacular run over the past decade, the expected returns over the next 10 years look bleak due to high valuations. I wouldn't expect more than 5% compounded annually returns for the SPY over the next 10 years. Foreign Developed and Foreign Emerging markets have much better valuations and therefore better expected returns of 7%+.

The US is a great country and still will be over the next decade but successful investing is not primarily about investing in the best companies but investing at the best prices/valuations. Google the "The Nifty 50" for a famous example about paying too much for great companies.



Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
Trip7 is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 04:17 AM
  #305  
Banned
 
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 894
Default

What do you guys think is better for long-term growth and wealth building, real estate investing or stocks?
123494 is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 04:23 AM
  #306  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Trip7's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,392
Default

I'd say both are equal go with the one you are more passionate about.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
Trip7 is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 04:31 AM
  #307  
On Reserve
 
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Position: A350 Left
Posts: 12
Default

Simplistic answer but do both. I have been nicely pleased with my commercial real estate and very happy with my stock portfolio. I am a pilot not an expert in those endeavors. Becoming wealthy is 90% discipline with common sense and 10% luck. MHOO.
Flying Yak is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 04:46 AM
  #308  
Rerouted On Weekends
 
Jaww's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Position: 717A
Posts: 2,937
Default

Originally Posted by Flying Yak View Post
Simplistic answer but do both. I have been nicely pleased with my commercial real estate and very happy with my stock portfolio. I am a pilot not an expert in those endeavors. Becoming wealthy is 90% discipline with common sense and 10% luck. MHOO.
Well I am super disciplined. I buy my lottery ticket on the regular every week. Need that luck to kick in. I figure it’s a better investment than my 401K.
Jaww is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 04:47 AM
  #309  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Trip7's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,392
Default

Originally Posted by Flying Yak View Post
Simplistic answer but do both. I have been nicely pleased with my commercial real estate and very happy with my stock portfolio. I am a pilot not an expert in those endeavors. Becoming wealthy is 90% discipline with common sense and 10% luck. MHOO.
Excellent point. Personally while I'm not Jewish I do subscribe to the philosophy from the Talmud text of "Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve."

So for me:

33% in emergency fund

33% in Real Estate (Syndications/Partnerships)

33% in Net Net and Deep Value Equities around the globe

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
Trip7 is offline  
Old 12-15-2020, 05:24 AM
  #310  
Gets Weekends Off
 
GucciBoy's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Fetal
Posts: 1,148
Default Side Hustle

Originally Posted by Gunfighter View Post
15% is pretty steep ask for a loan collateralized by a portfolio. 4-7% in a margin account would be a much better deal.



Fidelity Margin Rates

Tradestation Margin Rates

Tastyworks Margin Rates







Amen to that! The "not fun" aspect of investing other people's money is what kept me from accepting partners in any of my real estate deals. Explaining my decisions on distributions vs reinvested earnings didn't sound all that appealing.



At some point there may be a place for passive investors in syndications, but that day isn't here yet. If it does happen, there will be very clearly spelled out expectations about management, distributions and capital events. Aw crap, I think I just talked myself out of it again...


Originally Posted by Jiggawatt View Post
This is the problem with historical data. You cherry picked 2009... the very bottom of the market. If you instead started just one year earlier, and bought the S and P at the start of 2008 (it was at 1447), you’d have a much more normal return of about 12% between then and now. Or if you lost your nerve and took your money out in 2012 you would have minimal profit (and you would’ve lost money if you had started in January 2007 or Jan 2008).



It’s historical market timing to compare someone’s performance to the market’s performance during one of the longest bull markets in history.


I was just making an apples-to-apples comparison to the timeframe mispoken quoted. Nothing more. And I offered up $100K at 15% since he claimed his strategy would allow him to make a handy profit while still paying out to me. Why would I sell my money to him at 4-7% when the S&P is going to give me 10%?
GucciBoy is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Datsun
ExpressJet
1312
03-08-2018 09:04 AM
Bruno82
Hangar Talk
4
01-11-2018 05:53 PM
just wondering
Hangar Talk
21
11-16-2010 08:53 PM
PearlPilot
Flight Schools and Training
47
04-15-2009 04:44 AM
Noonan
Fractional
2
03-02-2006 08:58 AM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices