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Old 04-27-2020, 05:31 AM
  #1451  
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Originally Posted by O2pilot View Post
Sweden has had 2,200 deaths out of a population of 10+M. Since they aren’t quarantining, they have a lot of herd immunity. Their cases are dropping now.

They did this better than anyone. They took a chance but won big.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:50 AM
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So long as we are speculating, the head of US Bank stated that they think the economy will be back to where it was in Q4 of 2021. Since airlines are a leading economic indicator, we would want to be a little in front of that. I think some cuts are inevitable, but they should be done in such a way to return to higher levels quickly, or risk losing revenue. Being a little too big in the short term would seem to be a better option than cutting to the bone, for now. Then see how it looks in a year or so. I've also heard our execs talk about taking advantage of new opportunities, and I would think that this crisis will present more than a few.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:56 AM
  #1453  
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I’m just a pilot, but I had this discussion with some esteemed (non pilots) elders yesterday. They’d been around the sun 60 plus, if not 70, but they were sharp as a whip. They asked:

Why don’t we just ask the Chinese for the vaccine they probably developed a year ago?

You can’t tell me these guys had near zero cases in Beijing or Shanghai after having the Coronavirus since October, without the Wuhan lockdown until January. Oh, and the virus pops up in just about every country in a matter of a month.

Their theory is they developed this virus, found a vaccine, came up with a plausible way to enter humans (Fish Market), mandated everybody get flu shots, with a batch or two missing the antigens for covid 19, then unleashed their world order toppling virus.

In the meantime we’re seeing China make prominent Hong Kong protesters disappear, and China make huge grabs for companies that are failing.

It was an interesting idea they had, we’re just suckers staring at coronavirus, while they make huge advances under our noses.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:59 AM
  #1454  
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Originally Posted by O2pilot View Post
Sweden has had 2,200 deaths out of a population of 10+M. Since they aren’t quarantining, they have a lot of herd immunity. Their cases are dropping now.

They did this better than anyone. They took a chance but won big.
How do you figure? They have about 50% more deaths than the US based on populations. Looks like our model has actually resulted in a lower percentage of fatalities! Use South Carolina as an example, about half the population of Sweden with only 175 deaths....WON BIG?? I doubt the last 1800 people would agree.
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:01 AM
  #1455  
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Originally Posted by formerdal View Post
How do you figure? They have about 50% more deaths than the US based on populations. Looks like our model has actually resulted in a lower percentage of fatalities!
Yes. This exactly. They are like 5th highest in the world in deaths per million.
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:13 AM
  #1456  
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Originally Posted by O2pilot View Post
Sweden has had 2,200 deaths out of a population of 10+M. Since they aren’t quarantining, they have a lot of herd immunity. Their cases are dropping now.

They did this better than anyone. They took a chance but won big.
A Swede has been roughly four times more likely to die from this virus than someone in my state. Is that winning?

Also, it’s too early to declare that they’re on the backside of the curve. New cases are down a few days in a row, but they’ve done that many times before, only to reverse and hit new highs. The projected peak isn’t for four more weeks.
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:22 AM
  #1457  
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Originally Posted by flyallnite View Post
So long as we are speculating, the head of US Bank stated that they think the economy will be back to where it was in Q4 of 2021. Since airlines are a leading economic indicator, we would want to be a little in front of that. I think some cuts are inevitable, but they should be done in such a way to return to higher levels quickly, or risk losing revenue. Being a little too big in the short term would seem to be a better option than cutting to the bone, for now. Then see how it looks in a year or so. I've also heard our execs talk about taking advantage of new opportunities, and I would think that this crisis will present more than a few.
The head of Lehman brothers was bragging about their financial position just before their stock crashed. Financial guys throw out false optimism to try to keep things from unraveling. While I’m not completely pessimistic I would be astounded if things come back that quick. Of course investors are trying their best to start a new bulk market, so things might comeback even before Q4 2021. I keep telling everybody that money not only doesn’t sleep, it also doesn’t get covid-19.
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:32 AM
  #1458  
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Originally Posted by Dash8Pilot View Post
A Swede has been roughly four times more likely to die from this virus than someone in my state. Is that winning?

Also, it’s too early to declare that they’re on the backside of the curve. New cases are down a few days in a row, but they’ve done that many times before, only to reverse and hit new highs. The projected peak isn’t for four more weeks.
Ok, a random healthy Swede or a vulnerable population Swede? That is a BIG difference.

Nuance.
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:40 AM
  #1459  
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Originally Posted by iHateAMR View Post
I’m just a pilot, but I had this discussion with some esteemed (non pilots) elders yesterday. They’d been around the sun 60 plus, if not 70, but they were sharp as a whip. They asked:

Why don’t we just ask the Chinese for the vaccine they probably developed a year ago?

You can’t tell me these guys had near zero cases in Beijing or Shanghai after having the Coronavirus since October, without the Wuhan lockdown until January. Oh, and the virus pops up in just about every country in a matter of a month.

Their theory is they developed this virus, found a vaccine, came up with a plausible way to enter humans (Fish Market), mandated everybody get flu shots, with a batch or two missing the antigens for covid 19, then unleashed their world order toppling virus.

In the meantime we’re seeing China make prominent Hong Kong protesters disappear, and China make huge grabs for companies that are failing.

It was an interesting idea they had, we’re just suckers staring at coronavirus, while they make huge advances under our noses.
Or maybe it went animals to human like 99% of viruses do. Look, the Chinese did not tank their GDP Q1 by -6.5% on purpose. I have had a few trips around the sun too and I am not an elder, dammit!
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Old 04-27-2020, 07:26 AM
  #1460  
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Originally Posted by Mesabah View Post
???? If this lockdown causes R0 to drop below 1, where it's trending, you don't get herd immunity at a crawl. The virus actually stops spreading until the conditions are right for R0 to rise again; A seasonal virus.
https://rt.live gives you the numbers. It’s heavily impacted by late reporting though.
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