Delta To Furlough?
03-04-2020, 01:36 PM
#161
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Position: retired 767(dl)
Posts: 5,731
You simply cannot take a tiny sample size and scale it up to anything meaningful. By that logic, based on the sock market today, I should be able to retire by the end of the month...
The key phrase is known. The demominator is very likely much larger than we know, meaning the rate gets driven down. But of those cases we do know about, The WHO and CDC are citing a point seven, 0.7%, overall mortality rate outside China, heavily skewed to the elderly. When the CDC tells me to panic, I will. In the meantime, we should all take it seriously, wash our hands, and not panic. And definitely take what every media source says with a grain of salt. Sure, take this more seriously than we typically take the flu, which killed 100 people just today. Underlying conditions, availability of care, standard of care, supportive care available, etc is entirely different than in China. I'm glad EMS is taking it seriously, they should prepare. However, also take a deep breath.
I get what you are saying, but odds are that you will survive, actually. The over 70 Mortality rate is about 8%. Over 80 is about 20%. You are right about kids and adults up to 40, which is pretty close to the regular flu at .2%.
The key phrase is known. The demominator is very likely much larger than we know, meaning the rate gets driven down. But of those cases we do know about, The WHO and CDC are citing a point seven, 0.7%, overall mortality rate outside China, heavily skewed to the elderly. When the CDC tells me to panic, I will. In the meantime, we should all take it seriously, wash our hands, and not panic. And definitely take what every media source says with a grain of salt. Sure, take this more seriously than we typically take the flu, which killed 100 people just today. Underlying conditions, availability of care, standard of care, supportive care available, etc is entirely different than in China. I'm glad EMS is taking it seriously, they should prepare. However, also take a deep breath.
I get what you are saying, but odds are that you will survive, actually. The over 70 Mortality rate is about 8%. Over 80 is about 20%. You are right about kids and adults up to 40, which is pretty close to the regular flu at .2%.
03-04-2020, 02:41 PM
#162
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Narrow/Left Wide/Right
Posts: 3,655
In the windy city you need to be watching out for Jesse Smollett's attackers, they like the dead of winter with sub-zero temps and they are ostensibly still on the loose in this un-solved brutal attack!
03-04-2020, 03:03 PM
#163
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Position: On the hotel shuttle
Posts: 5,840
According to the media we are most at risk from shark attacks, gang violence, and plane crashes. And now, apparently, pandemics.
Perspective. Know you’re an audience when you watch 24-hr news.
Perspective. Know you’re an audience when you watch 24-hr news.
03-04-2020, 05:55 PM
#164
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2018
Posts: 37
The mortality rate of this virus is in the neighborhood of 20-50 times higher than the seasonal flu. That is not "very, very slightly higher" unless you just don't know how to do math.
The death rate for seasonal flu is around .1% or 1 in a thousand. The death rate for this virus may be higher than 5%. Optimistic estimates put it at 2%.
For perspective, the seasonal flu results in 291,000-646,000 deaths per year globally and 12,000-61,000 in the US alone. Even if we say that it is 10x more deadly than the seasonal flu (the 2% and similar estimates assume that all cases not yet dead will survive, which is poor math for determining case mortality), we arrive at 120,000-610,000 deaths in the US alone from this if it spreads to the same extent. If we get the same mortality rate they are having in China, we could be talking 5.6% or higher.
It is saddening that so many people think that because it is in the same family, that it is just the normal flu.
The death rate for seasonal flu is around .1% or 1 in a thousand. The death rate for this virus may be higher than 5%. Optimistic estimates put it at 2%.
For perspective, the seasonal flu results in 291,000-646,000 deaths per year globally and 12,000-61,000 in the US alone. Even if we say that it is 10x more deadly than the seasonal flu (the 2% and similar estimates assume that all cases not yet dead will survive, which is poor math for determining case mortality), we arrive at 120,000-610,000 deaths in the US alone from this if it spreads to the same extent. If we get the same mortality rate they are having in China, we could be talking 5.6% or higher.
It is saddening that so many people think that because it is in the same family, that it is just the normal flu.
03-04-2020, 09:17 PM
#165
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2006
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 2,370
Contrary to how it might appear, I'm not actually panicking about this, I just very much dislike the comparisons to seasonal flu and decimal points moving around.
My largest concern is just for our hospital system is the number requiring hospital care were to be the same as in China.
03-04-2020, 09:38 PM
#166
Rodeo clown
Joined APC: Feb 2017
Position: Tractor seat
Posts: 703
The published mortality rate is 2-4%, another misplaced decimal point, unless you're using another number source (which is possible). If you use the dead vs recovered numbers (which IS what is used in the end) it is more like 6-7% overall. Of course, the more cases that have long term recovery and do recover the higher the survival rate gets and lower the mortality. It is still higher than the seasonal flu by a substantial amount.
Contrary to how it might appear, I'm not actually panicking about this, I just very much dislike the comparisons to seasonal flu and decimal points moving around.
My largest concern is just for our hospital system is the number requiring hospital care were to be the same as in China.
Contrary to how it might appear, I'm not actually panicking about this, I just very much dislike the comparisons to seasonal flu and decimal points moving around.
My largest concern is just for our hospital system is the number requiring hospital care were to be the same as in China.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/
03-05-2020, 01:16 AM
#167
veut gagner à la loterie
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
We know people have died and we know how many.
Then they give us a number of people who have it and everyone hits the calculator.
But here is the disconnect. They also say it spreads easily and nearly everyone will get it.
They then hide the fact for most the symptoms are very mild, you may not know you have it.
But now the numerator today is likely far more massive then we know and the mortality rate is likely far lower than anyone making money off of news would like to admit.
Reminds me of hurricane season and the weather channel. They will so hype a storm as certain death and nothing happens to the point you seem to always ignore them. Not good. Next time a real pandemic is brewing lets hope its not ignored because you think back to c19. But for now, panic is good for their business is more ways than one.
Then they give us a number of people who have it and everyone hits the calculator.
But here is the disconnect. They also say it spreads easily and nearly everyone will get it.
They then hide the fact for most the symptoms are very mild, you may not know you have it.
But now the numerator today is likely far more massive then we know and the mortality rate is likely far lower than anyone making money off of news would like to admit.
Reminds me of hurricane season and the weather channel. They will so hype a storm as certain death and nothing happens to the point you seem to always ignore them. Not good. Next time a real pandemic is brewing lets hope its not ignored because you think back to c19. But for now, panic is good for their business is more ways than one.
Last edited by forgot to bid; 03-05-2020 at 01:27 AM.
03-05-2020, 01:30 AM
#168
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,063
3,000 pilots on the streets next week.
Kidding, No one wants that.
Take a snap shot. Same issue next year and the years to come. Social media and the morons who believe the media. Its amazing how many people are sheep. Thankfully the market is starting to see the panic for what is its. I suggest we all by stockpiles of the N95 worthless mask and make money selling that.
Kidding, No one wants that.
Take a snap shot. Same issue next year and the years to come. Social media and the morons who believe the media. Its amazing how many people are sheep. Thankfully the market is starting to see the panic for what is its. I suggest we all by stockpiles of the N95 worthless mask and make money selling that.
03-05-2020, 02:45 AM
#169
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 794
3,000 pilots on the streets next week.
Kidding, No one wants that.
Take a snap shot. Same issue next year and the years to come. Social media and the morons who believe the media. Its amazing how many people are sheep. Thankfully the market is starting to see the panic for what is its. I suggest we all by stockpiles of the N95 worthless mask and make money selling that.
Kidding, No one wants that.
Take a snap shot. Same issue next year and the years to come. Social media and the morons who believe the media. Its amazing how many people are sheep. Thankfully the market is starting to see the panic for what is its. I suggest we all by stockpiles of the N95 worthless mask and make money selling that.
03-05-2020, 05:46 AM
#170
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2018
Posts: 37
The published mortality rate is 2-4%, another misplaced decimal point, unless you're using another number source (which is possible). If you use the dead vs recovered numbers (which IS what is used in the end) it is more like 6-7% overall. Of course, the more cases that have long term recovery and do recover the higher the survival rate gets and lower the mortality. It is still higher than the seasonal flu by a substantial amount.
Contrary to how it might appear, I'm not actually panicking about this, I just very much dislike the comparisons to seasonal flu and decimal points moving around.
My largest concern is just for our hospital system is the number requiring hospital care were to be the same as in China.
Contrary to how it might appear, I'm not actually panicking about this, I just very much dislike the comparisons to seasonal flu and decimal points moving around.
My largest concern is just for our hospital system is the number requiring hospital care were to be the same as in China.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...nging-in-china
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