The Localizer

Do they even have schedules out that far?

weekendflyer

I’m thinking only 500 will be saved

Bottlen0se

Some say 0, some say 1,000. I’ll go with the middle, 500 or so. I base that on a few metrics. I looked back at some of the email BS and JL sent out and came across one where it was mentioned we were over staffed by 2.5 to 3.5k pilots. This kind of goes in line with the shrinking of the airline 20-40%. Their best case scenario without the VEOP was we need to furlough 2.5k and worst case 3.5k.

I think their forecast for summer of 21 is worse than initially predicted. Then there is the training churn, how do they fit the recalls for 2022 back in the mix when there’s a lot of training already going to be happening all next year. I think this kind of limits them on how deep they can cut if they want to hold to their 2-3 year recovery plan.

One more point to add, if they plan on cutting all UNAs, that means we’re at their worst case forecast and I wouldn’t be surprised if they line up more pilots to go UNA. I don’t think we are at this level yet. Just IMO. Take it with a grain of salt.

Der Meister

I say 0, 2550+1800 = 30% reduction. Also they want an ALV cut of 15%. That 15% ask is about equal to the cost of having the 2550 on property. They want the cut, they will get the cut be it by bodies or ALV.

Gunfighter

I love the rumor of the 777 staying. Here are a few replies to the previous page of 777 comments. I don't have any experience as a 320 FO, 737 instructor or MD88A, my recent experience has been limited to crossing the Atlantic and Pacific in the 777. A350 experts, please chime in on my comments. I may have missed a few nuances of the fuel/GW limits...

Canberra works on good weather days, but it isn't reliable year round. There was a reason we used Brisbane instead of Canberra on the 777 most of the time. As pointed out earlier, Australia is the size of the US with a population equivalent to the state of NY. 200 miles is a close alternate and 600 is reasonable, especially when you are an international arrival.

The A350 can carry a mix of cargo, passengers and fuel from LAX to SYD. The mix contains 2 of 3. A full load of all 3 exceeds the GW limits. With current load factors, the choice is already made to block seats. Certification at a higher gross weight (ie pay airbus for a piece of paper) will allow the 350 to carry more fuel, therefore more range. At max GW with both full pax and some cargo the A350 tanks aren't full. Pay for a higher GW limit and you can fill the tanks. This solves most of the LAX-SYD equation. It can't solve ATL-JNB, that requires a fuel stop even at higher GW.

As pointed our earlier a big variable on LAX - SYD is the ITCZ. Deviating 100 miles around storms is normal. That is just a minor adjustment. The big adjustments that take you several degrees of latitude off of a direct routing are done by dispatch prior to takeoff.

AlphaBeta

i believe you are correct, unfortunately. They are looking to extract as much as they can to save the balance sheet. I hope you are wrong but the longer this progress the less likely I see a sharp recovery. My buddy who works for sales force is being told he will not be traveling until winter of 21 at the earliest. Told not to expect to gain new customers but to fortify his current customers.

Drum

Goggles did the math somewhere in one if not more threads.

Based on the 1806 VEOP numbers and the summer 2021 schedule as we know it, I don't see all 2558 getting furloughed. I'm thinking they shave about 750-1000 off the UNA. I would expect those furloughed to return within a year.

We still have the NC doing work and we'll most likely see something out of that pretty soon. Let's hope we get some SILs with plenty of flexibility. I'm confident those are in the pipeline for us as they have given the non-cons like 60% pay, plus health plus 401k contribution offers (read that somewhere).

It was good to read about the trans atlantic and pacific flying on Deltanet. Things are improving on that front. I think the tariff and restriction war will settle down between US and EU and we'll see travel restrictions lifted considerably.

Regardless, I'm still prepping for furlough come 1 Oct. until I see more data - like the Sep AE numbers.

Finally I think it was either Phins, FTB, notEnough or someone wrote about it, looks like Roche has a very viable therapeutic for this bug. El presidente is having a Sunday news conference at 6pm EDT to announce "something". My guess is he's announcing that we have a viable therapeutic. I'm sure whatever it is, it will be about the flu and it will be good news.

Gunfighter

0 furloughs. The 60/60 program is a precursor to offering extended SILs. Non-cons had to get a paid leave option before offering one to pilots. I'd expect an offer of 50 hours for an extended period with recall options. It is below the 55 hours in the contract for a monthly SIL, but it aligns with the VEOP. It will be called something other than a SIL to avoid a battle over 55 hours.

WhiskeyDelta

That 30% reduction you show brings them down to the active pilots they forecast based on the MOAD. Inactives have to be added back (for SLIs, SIC leaves, MLOA, etc) in the form of saving UNAs which is close to an additional 10% historically.

My guess is IF they furlough the max will be 1500 and even then I think that’s on the high side.

WhiskeyDelta

My thoughts as well. The company has to back track from their hardline stance in the name of the brand. They know who much it will suffer if they petulantly furlough thousands of mostly young pilots just to prove how bad unions can be.