Very true. Problem is a lot of the “who, what, when, where” are inaccurate yet posted as fact. Then throw some “how’s” and “why’s” with some prior to the fact judgements about outcomes and you have the “wisdom and experience” starter pack.

 

contract reference?

 

You won’t find a specific reference, but it’s true. Apparently an arbitration, or other grievance settlement from the past. If you don’t believe me, submit an ACE inquiry or talk to contact admin in the alpa office. They can of course take you off the trip at their discretion, but you are legal to complete the carry out trip.

 

I mean- he's pretended and convinced himself he can see all possibilities. I'm afraid im not buying what hes been selling for years now.

 

He and others bring valuable insight, it is however, important to understand what side of the fence lines their pockets. If you come here to discuss work rules, contract, etc., a forum like this is definitely a more direct connection to the higher ups on the other side- more so say than say a casual call to a CPO. At the end of the day we all play for and get paid by the same team. We either all win or we start over elsewhere. I encourage others to steer clear of topics that the media could use against any one of us or the organization as a whole, unless it is heavily cryptic in nature. Without accounts like sailing fun it would be, well, Chit Chat; just a bunch of pilots doing what pilots do best.

 

My thoughts on this contract, Delta pilots should not lead the industry upward. As I have always said, during my entire time here, the company has only offered contracts when they desperately need something; cannot fill new hire classes, scope relief or a new CEO needs to calm Wall St that labor is ok. Believe it or not, none of these things are true at the moment although the SLI issue is a Trojan Horse.

The world needs 30,000 new airline pilots by 2025, they don't exist. It isn't even remotely plausible to entertain the idea of getting ahead of that wave at this point, with ATP requirements intact. IMO, it will be someone like Alaska, JBLU or even SWA that has to be the one that pushes the big rate upward. Their executive team will use "inflation" to sell the massive raise to the board members and Wall St. At that point the aforementioned airlines will be paying FOs more than DAL captains and that is Delta's worst-case scenario. A 40% raise for the pilots has got to be pretty close to a $1B annually.

We are going to target 85% of the block hours we flew in 2019 yet we need the same number of pilots. Again, my .02, we have been over hiring. The hiring is front loading the seniority list while rates are low with pilots who are also accruing 200 pilots beneath them, per month. This movement will discourage those same pilots from wanting to start over with a seniority of ZERO elsewhere when one of those other carriers pops up as the industry leader in pay. The extra hiring is not wasteful, we are still retiring 500 a year for a decade. Make no mistake about it, the company is parking senior pilots NQAT and flying the doors off lower paid new hires. Our management team is always a step ahead.

All that being said, it is why Delta should not lead the charge higher. If we take something ridiculous like 8%, representing 2019 to 2027 or whatever, we deserve it. It will also set the bar going forward, for the next half decade, that this is all the industry will cash out during the largest pilot shortage in history. Sure, other airlines may get raises that are significantly higher, but will an early 2022 hire give up 1000 to 1500 numbers to go chase the bottom elsewhere? Delta is banking on no, hopefully the difference is enough that junior says, see ya!

 

I'm having difficulty finding the point of your post. First you say that Delta "should not" (as in, you don't WANT us to) lead the industry...then you follow that up later with "8% is ridiculous." Which is it? You don't want us to lead the industry, contract-wise, yet at the same time you are lamenting a theoretical insufficient pay raise? Which is it? What is the ideal end state goal in your mind?

Then you mention the extreme pilot shortage, followed by "Delta has been over hiring" followed by "the extra hiring is not wasteful." Which is it? The very definition of "over hiring" is "wasteful." That's like saying "I overate at the buffet" followed by "but I didn't eat too much, it was actually a perfect amount of food."

I think that the massive hiring is mostly good, but as we have all seen in this industry, this week's "massive hiring wave" can stop in an instant, followed by "the lost decade" and five years of furlough (though hopefully not!).

 

Yeah I didn't get most of that either.

Except that soon SWA FO rates will exceed our CA rates. I don't think its "negotiating in public" to say that won't happen.*



*Wiemar hyperinflation notwithstanding I suppose, in theory.

 

Is there a source somewhere for that?

 

Post #996. A prediction of the future from justnarced.