Good thing the ER doesn’t count as NB or this would be a lie

 

Hold on. You have no doubt Delta will furlough in the next 2 years? I think any industry watcher would agree that Delta is in better financial shape than any of the other legacy airlines. So if Delta collapses, then you're predicting the collapse of the entire industry? I suppose that means United goes bankrupt and American goes under?

The internet and this site have always been full of know it all chicken little types. Another constant is that pilots, despite their big talk, are terrible financial managers/planners. The coming recession is going to be bad, but I don't see the global financial system collapsing and plunging us into the 1930s. There's too many safeguards in place. I don't even see it being as bad as 2008 when the over leveraged banks went belly up.

These dark posts remind me of mid 2020 when the same people were predicting a 10 year depression and legacy airlines half their current size 5 years from now. They were wrong then too.

I'll issue a prediction. There will be a slowdown and hiring may pause for a while. Nobody is going to get furloughed, not even at American. The sky is not falling because eventually people will start flying again. The demand will always be there and retirements will continue. If the airlines furlough, they've put wheels in motion they won't be able to reverse quickly... again. I think they learned that lesson after the 'rona.

 

That’s quite enough common sense to be bandied about these parts, thank you very much!

 

I have found 99% of the time when someone predicts a economic collapse or a change in civilization as we know it if you ask if they have taken the steps you would expect if they believed what they say the answer is no. They are still in conventional investments and no other prep other than buying another AR15. If they believed what they state they would be all in on physical precious metals ect..

 

Have you seen the new picketing event signs. Seems we're moving from the 'fatigue/scheduling signs' to the 'overdue contract' signs.

I'd suggest (which I have to my reps) that we keep the 'schedule reliability' posters in the mix. That, and the letter to our customers, may keep the 'heat' off the pilots during the next, and the next, and the next meltdown this summer.

 

I agree. Something along the lines of “had a canceled flight? Ask Ed why.” Or “we are properly staffed.” - Ed

 

Some pictures of crying families missing weddings and vacations might be appropriate. Maybe a shot of an iphone holding time. Customer service lines, cancellation percentages, on-time trends, missed connections - all sorts of things our lack of leadership and foresight has made possible.

 

Right next to the number of overtime trips we have flow this year vs 2018 and 2019? Or % of overtime compared to those years.

 

Hit me up in 2 years, just because airlines furlough doesn't mean they collapse. Have you been around more than 5 years in this industry? It has always been hire until you furlough, furlough until you hire. Oil prices aren't going back down, inflation isn't going away, the Feds will throw in the towel in just a matter of months. Their game right now is all talk. There is no way out of the mess we are in, the government spent like money was limitless for the past two decades. When the government raises taxes 10%, cuts spending by 20% and their debt bill goes up by 20% what do you think is going to happen to our economy? You think people are going to have money to fly? You don't think corporations are going to cut back on flying? What we were doing was unsustainable before Covid, now it is just off the charts (literally).

I'm currently investing 90% in commodities - putting my money where my mouth is. How do you see this mess ending? Just a "soft landing" to 1% growth and 2% inflation? Not happening. Do you think the government is going to cut entitlements? Cut military spending? It won't happen until the market forces it and everyday they wait it makes the end game more ugly.

 

My only rational reply is that I've been in this industry for more than 25 years lol.

Also, if you truly believe all that I think you need to convert your assets to gold, move to Idaho, build a bunker, and go off the grid. You know, put your money where your mouth is lol.