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Old 04-15-2023, 09:47 AM
  #491  
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Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
IMO all such attempts now should be met with crushing resistance before the cancer spreads. But that requires long term thinking and B-schools don't focus on that anymore.
I think we are competing well with them - we're flying A330 on those routes while they are flying the A321. Our CPM has got be be low. We think we can command a revenue premium as well, and can carry a fair bit of cargo too. Plus we have feed on both ends of AMS and CDG.
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Old 04-15-2023, 09:52 AM
  #492  
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Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
The dynamics of it? Yes. Kicking back in Corinthian leather chairs swirling thousand dollar Scotch in a snifter and lighting Ghurka Royal Courtesan's with $100 bills is fun until the money runs out and you wish you had those Billions in burnback money back and are not faced with overlapping fields of fire from redundantly irrational critical mass competitors and suddenly have to shrink to profitability again.

The so called "pilot shortage" is somewhat saving them from themselves, but its sugar high in limiting competitors growth rates will only last so long. When the next "lost decade" happens we will have to deal with uber junior ULCC's who now seat dump millions of lay flat premium seats below our costs. We can deal with them now on our terms by peeling off some profits, or we can deal with them later on their terms by surrendering marketshare to salvage yields in a crumbling revenue environment.

IMO all such attempts now should be met with crushing resistance before the cancer spreads. But that requires long term thinking and B-schools don't focus on that anymore.
They may charge less, but I'm not convinced that JetBlue has lower TATL costs than us on a seat mile basis, especially with the whole inability to carry cargo part.

Your whole premise is based on being the smartest guy in the room, but declaring something like their lower costs doesn't make it fact.
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Old 04-15-2023, 10:31 AM
  #493  
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Originally Posted by Baradium View Post
They may charge less, but I'm not convinced that JetBlue has lower TATL costs than us on a seat mile basis, especially with the whole inability to carry cargo part.

Your whole premise is based on being the smartest guy in the room, but declaring something like their lower costs doesn't make it fact.
It doesn't matter what their margins are. Only that they are dumping premium supply with no sign of slowing down. Their fares on premium lay flat products are frequently a fraction of what ours are. We ignore them and their endless growth at our peril and one day we will look back on these days where it would have been easy to crush them when we have to deal with a much stronger competitor.

Focusing on quarterly numbers while a competitor grows on their terms in our premium markets will prove to be a bigger mistake than paying bilions for regionals to close them, bowing down to another regional for 300M of our own money to prevent liquidation and selling off hedges right before they spiked in value.
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Old 04-15-2023, 11:09 AM
  #494  
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Originally Posted by Tinpusher007 View Post
I dont believe the 787 is competing with the A350-1000 in the rumored RFP. Boeing is allegedly shopping the 777X to us in order to land an order from a US carrier as UA and AA already operate relatively young 777-300ERs and dont need anything bigger.
A sweetheart deal on 15-20 777X to be the U.S. launch customer would be pretty interesting.
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Old 04-15-2023, 12:06 PM
  #495  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules View Post
A sweetheart deal on 15-20 777X to be the U.S. launch customer would be pretty interesting.
My info from top men is that we are not interested in the 777x. Gating issues are a big deal (no pun intended).

787s are very much in play with the RFP.
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Old 04-15-2023, 12:15 PM
  #496  
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Originally Posted by GeneralLee View Post
My info from top men is that we are not interested in the 777x. Gating issues are a big deal (no pun intended).

787s are very much in play with the RFP.
Makes sense. If we are going to operate a 300+ seater wide body, the A350-1000 makes the most sense.
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Old 04-15-2023, 12:23 PM
  #497  
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Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
It doesn't matter what their margins are.
Huh? That sentence is a head-scratcher. If the margin isn't there, the route isn't sustainable, and it'll disappear. Also, if your argument is that a Skyteam ticket costs too much, it seems a bit misleading to compare pricing on individual legs; real world pax flying with one of the immunized JVs are likely connecting at least once via a much deeper network than B6 alone can offer. That convenience naturally commands a premium.

Of course, each of the big 3 should be keeping a close eye on B6 and Norse/Play/et al., but so far the threat hasn't demonstrated any teeth.

Last edited by fadecfault; 04-15-2023 at 12:34 PM.
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Old 04-15-2023, 12:25 PM
  #498  
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Originally Posted by Tinpusher007 View Post
Makes sense. If we are going to operate a 300+ seater wide body, the A350-1000 makes the most sense.
I’ve heard rumblings and wouldn’t be surprised if we see not only a Boeing product, but some 350-1000s as well.
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Old 04-15-2023, 12:33 PM
  #499  
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Originally Posted by GeneralLee View Post
I’ve heard rumblings and wouldn’t be surprised if we see not only a Boeing product, but some 350-1000s as well.
This would be best case. Im sure the company realizes the 787 has a lot to offer. The question is does it offer any capability that the A359 lacks or more than the A339 provides, especially as a 767 replacement? Moreover, it might be the right time to throw Boeing a bone to keep Airbus in check on pricing. Many airlines operate A350s and 787s together, including our JV partners AF and VS. Plus we already have a mixed narrow body fleet, albeit much larger fleets.
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Old 04-15-2023, 01:04 PM
  #500  
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Originally Posted by Tinpusher007 View Post
This would be best case. Im sure the company realizes the 787 has a lot to offer. The question is does it offer any capability that the A359 lacks or more than the A339 provides, especially as a 767 replacement? Moreover, it might be the right time to throw Boeing a bone to keep Airbus in check on pricing. Many airlines operate A350s and 787s together, including our JV partners AF and VS. Plus we already have a mixed narrow body fleet, albeit much larger fleets.
If we don't buy some Boeing wide bodies soon, eventually Airbus is going to start acting like a monopoly and start pricing accordingly. The last Boeing widebody I think we bought new was the order of 10 B777 that was delivered in 2008-2010...
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