5 year Market Outlook/Opinions Part Deux
#91
Can't abide NAI
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
Posts: 12,008
The EV mania over the past couple of years has led to complete and utter irrational exuberance. Led to Tesla becoming a Meme stock and currently trades for over 50 times earnings. EVs are currently a very niche market for upper middle class and above folks, like cell phones in the 90s. We're at least 10 years away from have the infrastructure to support mass adoption of EVs
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The EV mania over the past couple of years has led to complete and utter irrational exuberance. We're at least 10 years away from have the infrastructure to support ̶m̶a̶s̶s̶ ̶a̶d̶o̶p̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶E̶V̶s̶ everyone using clothes dryers or eating pizza at home.
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Further, the cars are smart enough to charge off peak. Our utility encourages us to charge at night (every utility has different generation situations) but at night the electrons are wasted at the speed of light if not consumed.
We still need "all the above" including the nasty ass oil and gas - after all, can't make or serve beer without CO2.
We have passed the tipping point where EV are just better at common tasks and downright fantastic at some jobs. Nothing is better for shuttling the kids around and going to the market. Road trips are marginally better in EV's. Towing = buy gas.
Diversifying our energy supply, giving consumers the freedom to choose, will reduce prices while distributing good jobs to communities that need them. The market will decide in favor of renewable energy. Politicians can (and have) slowed the transition down. Little they do could speed things up. The limiting factor is manufacturing capacity; labor & materials.
#92
$400/ton coal doesn’t last. Too much coal in the world.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...al-is-left.php
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...al-is-left.php
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#93
Here, let me fix that for you
If it sits on a 40A breaker and pulls 32A it really doesn't matter what kind of appliance it is; does it?
Further, the cars are smart enough to charge off peak. Our utility encourages us to charge at night (every utility has different generation situations) but at night the electrons are wasted at the speed of light if not consumed.
We still need "all the above" including the nasty ass oil and gas - after all, can't make or serve beer without CO2.
We have passed the tipping point where EV are just better at common tasks and downright fantastic at some jobs. Nothing is better for shuttling the kids around and going to the market. Road trips are marginally better in EV's. Towing = buy gas.
Diversifying our energy supply, giving consumers the freedom to choose, will reduce prices while distributing good jobs to communities that need them. The market will decide in favor of renewable energy. Politicians can (and have) slowed the transition down. Little they do could speed things up. The limiting factor is manufacturing capacity; labor & materials.
If it sits on a 40A breaker and pulls 32A it really doesn't matter what kind of appliance it is; does it?
Further, the cars are smart enough to charge off peak. Our utility encourages us to charge at night (every utility has different generation situations) but at night the electrons are wasted at the speed of light if not consumed.
We still need "all the above" including the nasty ass oil and gas - after all, can't make or serve beer without CO2.
We have passed the tipping point where EV are just better at common tasks and downright fantastic at some jobs. Nothing is better for shuttling the kids around and going to the market. Road trips are marginally better in EV's. Towing = buy gas.
Diversifying our energy supply, giving consumers the freedom to choose, will reduce prices while distributing good jobs to communities that need them. The market will decide in favor of renewable energy. Politicians can (and have) slowed the transition down. Little they do could speed things up. The limiting factor is manufacturing capacity; labor & materials.
Don't get me wrong, in 20 years the majority of vehicles on the road will be EVs and Hybrids. But right now plenty of folks are anticipating near term increases to EV market share that are not remotely possible.
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#95
Toyota believed so strongly in this that they are a decade behind other auto makers in EV development. Their fuel cell technology hasn't taken off as planned. They are promoting internal combustion hydrogen as the future of automobile power.
#96
US automakers can.
Right or wrong, smart or stupid, electric vehicles are coming in huge numbers to the US.
I'd put my money on the crony capitalists (but it's usually too late to do so when it's this obvious)
#98
From a middle to upper class perspective you're absolutely right. But millions of people live in apartments, townhouses, even houses sans garage etc that have no access to charging or can't afford to have one installed. The charging infrastructure on the road is not even ready for mass adoption of EVs. Telsa superchargers are get but optimized for Tesla and competitors will take a while to reach that level of scale and reliability. Lastly, the service infrastructure is not ready for mass adoption of these highly computerized cars. Even mighty Tesla is struggling to service the cars that they are rapidly increasing production on with overfilled service centers and long waits for your car back with no loaner vehicles available.
Don't get me wrong, in 20 years the majority of vehicles on the road will be EVs and Hybrids. But right now plenty of folks are anticipating near term increases to EV market share that are not remotely possible.
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Don't get me wrong, in 20 years the majority of vehicles on the road will be EVs and Hybrids. But right now plenty of folks are anticipating near term increases to EV market share that are not remotely possible.
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#99
Secondary markets will build around the industry. Energy companies will adapt and “gas” stations will have Starbucks and Wi-Fi for people waiting an extra 15 minutes for a change. The road side oasis will be the new real estate market with shopping and other time consuming entertainment. The mechanic and pump man of the 50s will become the energy valet and tech advisor of the next decade.
Horseshoes, and feed bags weren't instantly replaced with gas stations. It took decades to fill out the infrastructure. The same is happening with the EV transition.
#100
No it's 9.2%.....OK I'll type slow. 1.06% was end of third quarter YTD return on Sept 30. Markets change daily M-F so a return today will be different than a return tommorrow especially if you happen to be invested in individual stocks that are volatile. Hope the pictures helped and I typed slowly enough for you. I'll bring Crayons next time
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