chrisreedrules

Short term I think it will go higher than that. I see it settling around $150 /barrel. It will do some serious damage to the economy.

Trip7

That's the economic cycle for you. Balances things out. Too many zombie companies(rapidly growing revenues along with rapidly growing cashburn) benefitted from the Fed's money printer. High interest rates and high oil prices will get rid of many mediocre businesses

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mispoken

Volatility in BTU has been great for options premium. Not interested in it long term, but some small trades here and there 45 days out and closing about 15 or so days into the trade has been working out. So far. I’m short it right now with a call spread. We’ll see. #NKA!!!!

Trip7

That's unfortunate you're not in it long term. It's my largest position and high conviction stock. Eagerly awaiting 3Q earnings where I anticipate nearly $1 Billion in Operational Cashflow. Back in 2018 when Newcastle Coal was trading in the $100 range per ton BTU traded at $45. Newcastle Coal is currently $400+ per ton and China hasn't even fully opened yet. I've been accumulating since $5 a share and still believe the stock is cheap. My base case Fair value for the stock is $70—$80

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Finessed

You still bag holding those Alibaba long calls for a massive loss? It’s funny how you don’t talk about how bullish you went on a big loser. Those contracts have to be totally worthless.

Bottlen0se

I’m not sure what impact it will have but looks like sanctions are going to be eased on Venezuela. Oil related of course. I’d think this would have some impact on oil but I’m not an expert on the oil industry.

chrisreedrules

hopefully Russia’s weakening will push Venezuela to have some sort of normalcy restored to relations with the US.

All 5 Stages

It will be interesting to see with whom in Venezuela the U.S. will negotiate: will it be with President Juan Guaido -- whom the U.S. recognizes as the legitimate president -- or that other guy Nicholas Maduro.

A5S

Bucking Bar

OPEC+ is a collection of the worst folks on the planet. The fact any of our $$ goes to these murderous warmongers sucks. They are already off their production agreements by more than 3 bn barrells. The agreement to remove 2bn barrels is mostly talk; a handshake among murderous thugs.

Biden and most rational politicians realize the answer to American energy independence and affordable prices is "all the above."

Biden's power to do anything is severely limited. The banks and investors aren't interested in funding a lot of exploration. Most people in the business realize that constrained supply = greater profits. They know that they are on the back of the demand curve and they are going to try to pull down supply to maximize profits as long as they can.

Anyone who thinks this is simply partisan is not seeing the whole picture.

Bottlen0se

The dollar flow gates are and have been open for decades to a regime that literally attacked us. Want to know the real conspiracy behind 9/11? The Saudi government, who live like kings. We’ve accepted them as our friends, but turn a blind eye to how they treat their citizens, because of oil. So I get it, it’s easy to bash Swiss cheese Biden, but let’s be real, this is nothing new. In fact, I won’t be surprised to see an Iranian deal as well.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/08/31/an-iran-nuclear-deal-revival-could-dramatically-alter-oil-prices.html